Good morning. US equity futures are a little higher, SPX +9pts, we’re set to open at 4728. USD is +0.1% at DXY 101.67. The precious metals are leaning upward, Gold +$7, with Silver +0.3%. WTIC is +0.6% in the $72s.
sp’60min
Summary
Yesterday saw yet another new cycle high, if cooling back. S/t momentum weakened into the late afternoon, settling moderately positive.
Overnight futures have been a little choppy, if currently leaning on the positive side. The s/t cyclical setup favours the bears. On balance, a quad-opex settlement around 4700 appears the most natural scenario.
On any basis, the main market is crazy over-stretched. A few stocks – such as the big techs of MSFT, NFLX, and NVDA are already s/t broken. You could argue the broader market will follow lower into the Christmas break.
I’m wondering if 4600 is viable by next Friday. We’re only talking about 2%, which would make for a far better exit for my broken SPY PUT position. So… I might hold across the weekend, but the odds wouldn’t be favourable for Christmas week.
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Early movers
ALB +2.7%
AMD +0.6%
BABA +2.4%
BAC +0.9%
CHWY +3.8%, Needham, 20>25
CLF +1.5%
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COIN -0.4%, KBW 52>90, a very late call.
Bitcoin is currently -0.7% at $42742
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COST +2.7%, post earnings gains
DIS +0.5%
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DRI -0.8%, EPS $1.84 vs 1.74est. Rev’ y/y +9.7% to $2.73bn vs 2.74est. Guidance inline.
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F +1.0%
FCX +1.0%
FSLR +3.3%, Jefferies, buy, $211
GOLD +0.4%
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INTC +2.2%
JD +4.8%
LAC +2.7%
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LEN -2.3%, post earnings depression
META -0.2%
MRNA +2.9%
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MSFT +0.4%, but s/t broken, and highly prone to the 50dma, if not until next Mon/Tues’
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MU +1.3%
NEM +0.6%
NIO +3.0%
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NVDA -0.3%
OXY +0.9%
PFE +1.0%
RIVN +4.1%
RKLB +5.2%, successful launch
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ROKU -1.8%, MoffettNathenson, neutral>sell, 64>66. One of those bizarre mixed down/upgrades.
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SCHL -12.5%, post earnings horror from Scholastic.
SLB +0.5%
SOFI +1.6%
TLT -0.1%
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TSLA +1.1%
UAL +0.7%
UNG -0.8%, with Natgas $2.39
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VIX -3% in the low 12s
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XOM +0.5%
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Overnight markets
Asian and European markets ending the week on a mixed note…
Japan: +0.9% to 32970
China: -0.6% to 2942
Germany: currently +0.4% at 16819
UK: currently -0.5% at 7612
Here in the failed state of the UK…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67725424
Energy companies are looking to raise bills to help pay for defaulting customers.
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Have a good Friday