The Fed can be expected to do nothing, a pause, a pivot… or whatever you might want to call it. The s/t cyclical setup favours the equity bears.
sp’60min
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As ever, the first move the market takes is usually NOT the one the market will more broadly go with.
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I’ll return in THIS post by 2.15pm.
2.05pm
As expected… rates held.
… but we can expect a rate hike July 26th.
Equities initially lower… but its arguably a fake out.
I want to see the 5/15min cycles on the high side before getting involved, and increasingly… that doesn’t look likely today.
2.13pm
We’ve a gap fill.
The micro 5/15min cycles are both VERY low.
Inclined to climb with Powell.
I’m resigned to sitting it out until early Thurs’.
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2.25pm… Well, the Powell is due, and the setup threatens a bounce. I’m concerned we might settle net higher.
On any basis, the cyclical setup argues against an immediate equity short, and I’m not getting involved.
If it spirals lower… I can live with that, but… I’m guessing it recovers.
Back at 3pm