US equities ended the week with considerable quad-opex chop, the SPX settling -0.1% to 5464, but that still made for a net weekly gain of +33pts (0.6%).
sp’weekly1d
Summary
SPX: the 8th net weekly gain of 9, having broken a new hist’ high of 5505. Weekly momentum ticked upward, and is marginally positive.
re: scenario 1d. We saw price target met last week, but we’re still 4-6 weeks short in time. Time IS as important as price, and late July/early August would make for an ideal m/t turn ahead of the Fall & Election.
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Dear Subscriber
Some perspective…
With just five trading days left of June/Q2/H1, the SPX is currently +187pts (3.5%) at 5464. Monthly momentum remains on the VERY high side, as all cooling waves are very brief/minor.
Lets be clear… this multi-month up wave can’t continue forever, but there is currently ZERO sign of a ceiling/turn. I see index shorts and VIX longs as a waste of time, effort, and money.
Equity bulls should be able to tolerate downside of some 10% to around 5K this late summer/early fall. Such a drop would merely test key supports, such as the daily 200MA and the monthly 10MA.
Its arguably a case of ‘no shorts unless <5K’. I’d accept that is a fair way lower, but for most of the time since Oct’2022, such bearish trades haven’t worked out.
I’d merely argue the smarter ones will be quietly raising their stops on much of what they have, not least for tech stocks.
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Miscell’ things
Special note… I endeavour to highlight what matters. I don’t expect you to agree with all of it, I’d almost be concerned if you did! What I do expect is that you question everything, whether its from CNN, FOX, Zerohedge.com or yours truly. If you can do that, you’ll be ahead of the curve.
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Lin with guest Yardeni… touting SPX 8000. The latter looks a valid scenario, especially if Trump is re-elected, who would continue the deficit spending. The subsequent crash and currency/system reset would be even worse though.
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Ms. Cambone with guest Johnson. Whilst the dollar has its problems, its still better than the GBP, Euro, Yen, or just about any other FIAT paper out there.
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Yet more petrodollar chatter.
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Dore with an extended discussion on the economy.
At 54mins, maybe get a coffee or a stiff drink first.
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The weekly wrap from Hunter, whom is increasingly partisan, which I’m no fan of. Still though, the issues raised are important.
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The Celente… furious as ever.
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The weekend
Two days to rest and recover. I’ve sideline entertainment via House of the Dragon, Gold Rush – Parker’s trail, Hoffman Family Gold, and maybe a movie.
Next week will be busy, but the following week is July 4th week, which will see a much welcome 1.5 day break.
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’ 12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail six of the US equity indexes (weekly candle charts).
X: I should take it light, but if there is anything you’d like me to highlight, let me know.