It was a choppy end to the week, the SPX settling +2pts (0.03%) to 6915, which made for a net weekly decline of -24pts (0.3%).
sp’weekly1b
Summary
SPX: a moderate net weekly decline. The weekly candle is a bullish hammer, and also a hollow red reversal, both of which lean bullish. Weekly momentum remains marginally negative. Upper bollinger offers 7022, as 7K looks realistic next Tuesday morning.
The Tom Lee of Fundstrat…
His notion that ‘the market always test a new fed’ caught my attention. Powell isn’t due to leave until May, although Lee notes confirmation might be in March.
My default….
Net upside into the SpaceX IPO… likely due in Sept’.
Net cooling into the midterms.
Resuming upward into 2027.
We should expect at least one major washout this year. Whether its just a 10% correction, or a brief 20% ‘bear market’ – as we saw Feb’>April 2025, I don’t know.
The cautious will arguably be raising funds, as we keep climbing, and look to buy back on such a washout.
Right now, I see a number of key signal stocks – not least NKE, UNH, TGT, HD, and larger names… AAPL, NVDA, INTC, all of which offer higher levels into the spring.
If we do keep climbing, a broadly higher equity market would be an upward pressure for gold/silver, and the related miners. Gold $6K, with silver $150 by March/April, and then a drop (or at least sideways consolidation).
… and that makes me wonder about year end targets for Gold, Silver, and all those miners. Gold $7K, with Silver $218 (if Gold-Silver ratio 32).
The gold-silver ratio is currently 48
Note how the 32s have been historically important.
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A note on Gold & Silver
Gold, weekly
New hist’ high of $4989.23
Net weekly gain of +$394 (8.6%) to $4989.
Weekly momentum has accelerated to the upside.
Weekly RSI 79s.
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The Rickards touting $10K Gold, which does appear an eventuality, if not for another year or two.
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Silver, weekly
New hist’ high of $103.01
Net weekly gain of +$13.01 (14.5%) to $102.95
Weekly momentum has accelerated to the upside.
Weekly RSI 87s.
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I’ve finally watched this, and it merits highlighting…
$492… based on the 1979 gain.
Regardless… I agree with his notion that the rate of upside could be expected to increase… if with sporadic retraces.
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*I’ve not watched yet, but it might interest some of you.
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Miscell’ things
*I will be inclined to add some extra things (as they appear) late Friday/Sat’, so check back at least once this weekend.
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I create a dozen or so new charts… so I can cover the Dow’30.
I recognise… most won’t care about some of the names.
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I agree…. net bullish silver/gold, and the miners into the early 2030s.
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SPX 8400 this year? Now THIS is interesting to see, as I see 8K viable with the SpaceX this Sept’
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My weekend post on gold/silver, and the miners.
I am wondering about March/April.
At the current rate… Gold $6K, with Silver 160/170.
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The Friday evening summary
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Restaurants are the toughest of businesses to run.
Just ask Gordon Ramsey!
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Must-watch. Raises a number of key issues, with a little sidetrack on the cost of living and the gross wealth disparity…
The vast majority own NOTHING.
Worse… most are loaded with high interest debt.
Its also clear… this is only going to get worse until a ‘Let them eat cake’ moment.
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The weekly wrap on geo-politics is highly recommended.
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The dark path… from Mauritania to the monster infested UK.
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The Celente… calling it… for what it is.
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The weekend
Two days to rest/recover, and work a little. I’ve sideline entertainment from Gold Rush, and probably another movie.
I watched ‘Sentimental Value’ Thursday night, the story of a Norwegian father and daughter. For someone who hasn’t seen their family in around thirty years… such movies aren’t easy. Still… I liked it. Many wouldn’t, for what isn’t meaningless Hollywood popcorn entertainment.
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As ever, feel free to message me via X, Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’ 12pm EST @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail six of the US equity indexes