It was a positive end to the week, the SPX settling +8.7pts (0.2%) to 3638, which made for a net weekly gain of +80pts (2.3%). Meanwhile, WTIC cooled -18cents (0.4%) to $45.53, which made for a net weekly gain of +$3.11 (7.3%).
sp’weekly1b
WTIC weekly
Summary
sp: the third net weekly gain of four. Friday’s high of 3644 was just 1pt shy of the recent historic high. Weekly momentum continues to build. Upper bollinger is at 3640, and should increase another 20/25pts next week, with the 3700s realistic by mid December.
WTIC: oil climbed for a fourth consecutive week, printing $46.26. The door is wide open to psy’50, with secondary target of key price threshold of the 52s. The latter looks realistic in Jan/Feb’. Ongoing weakness in the USD is certainly helping pressure oil upward (no pun intended).
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Dear Subscriber
With a set of index historic highs (if not the SPX), it was another week for the equity bulls. I would keep in mind, we now have just 23 trading days left of 2020.
Some perspective… SPX m1b
With just one trading day left of the month, currently +368pts (11.3%) at 3638. Note first m/t support of the monthly 10MA – currently at 3163, as the bulls have almost 400pts of downside buffer!
Note the black MACD line – currently at 184.016, its never been this high since (at least) 1980. Whilst you could argue the market is short/mid/long term over-stretched, there is simply no sign of a ceiling/turn.
An increasing number of market forecasters are naturally now seeking >4K in 2021. Next key fib’ for the SPX…
… is 3956, and then 4865. I’m almost surprised I’ve not seen anyone tout 5K. From 4K > 5K… is only another 25%, which is certainly viable within a year. As ever though, one month… at a time.
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Final note…
So… the short 3.5 trading day week comes to an end. Half days are certainly welcome. One day I expect four day working weeks to become the norm in much of the world, although that is perhaps yours truly being overly optimistic.
Its time to rest, although I aim to get a few things done this weekend. I will endeavour to cover some things on Twitter, although I want to take it a little lighter, as Monday is end month, and then I’ll want to cover as many of the end month settlements as I can manage.
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EST @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail five of the US equity indexes (weekly candle charts).