It was a bullish start to the month, the SPX breaking a new historic high of 3678, and settling +40pts (1.1%) to 3662. Meanwhile, WTIC cooled by -79cents (1.7%) to $44.55.
sp’weekly1b
WTIC daily
Summary
sp: Regardless of the rest of the week and month… it has to be seen as a week/month for the bulls. Weekly momentum continues to build, with the 10MA offering soft support at 3499… notably around the upper side of the giant bullish pennant. Upper bollinger is at 3672, and will be around 3700 next week. Tom Lee’s end year target of 3800 looks just about in range.
wtic: oil cooled for a third day, and considering the weaker dollar, price action is actually weaker than it might seem. Regardless… having broken above the decisive >44.00s last week, the door remains wide open to psy’50. S/t price structure can be seen as a bull flag, and it does offer $50 within a matter of days.
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Looking ahead
Wednesday will see ADP jobs, EIA Pet’, and the Fed Beige book (2pm).
Earnings: RENN, CRWD, FIVE, OKTA, RH, SNOW, SPLK, ZS, PVH
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PF chart of the day
The computer has a revised downside target of the $17s.
Barrick Gold, daily
Today saw a net gain of +3.0% to $23.83. Today’s candle is black, and leans to some cooling during part of Wednesday. Daily momentum is set to turn positive this Thursday.
GOLD, monthly
November was an outright ugly month, settling with a bearish engulfing candle, and its suggestive the $22s won’t hold. Note the monthly 10MA in the $25s… which we’re distinctly under. Further, note the MACD (green bar histogram) cycle, which is threatening to turn negative later this month/early January.
From a trading perspective, its pretty clear… those long will arguably have a stop from around the $22s, as a failure would offer open air to the $17s or so. Gold mining bulls need to see commodity gold back above psy’ $1900.
Today’s weaker dollar certainly helped give gold/silver a kick upward, but a weaker dollar can’t be a core reason to be long gold/silver or the related miners.
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We have just 21 trading days left of the year. The weaker dollar is certainly helping to pressure most things upward. Any price action in the DXY 87s would merit alarm bells, although many would be pleased, not least those nations with a truck load of dollar denominated debt.
Ohh, and as for the election… its ironic that I’ve probably watched more hours of the election hearings that most Americans. What I hear is pretty devastating, literally hundreds of individual accounts of voting mayhem.
I’d guess most consider my scenario of civil war as ‘flippant’, or just me trying to be provocative. No… its not. I’ve heard too much to see the result as anything other than a fraud.
If Trump doesn’t get a second term, it won’t take more than a few million to begin hostilities. I sincerely hope it doesn’t come to that, but frankly, anything other than Biden/Harris is preferable. Even civil war.
If that riles any of you… perhaps it should. I consider election integrity for what is still the greatest nation on the planet, as kinda important, not just for the US itself, but the planet.
In any case… we’re another day along the dark path in the twilight zone. At the very least… its never dull, right?
Goodnight from London