Equities ended the week with a downside reversal, the SPX settling -19pts (0.25%) to 7711, which made for a net weekly gain of +37pts (0.5%).
sp’weekly1c
Summary
SPX: a moderate net weekly gain. This week’s low was 1pt below last week. Weekly momentum remains marginally positive. Upper bollinger is offering 7819.
I lean net bullish into mid Sept’. I merely wonder if Anthropic will IPO. If yes, the market will be inclined to hold up into late Sept’/early Oct’. I am distinctly cautious for October. Once the midterms are out of the way… regardless of the result, net bullish into 2027.
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A note on Gold, Silver, and the miners
Gold, weekly
Gold printed a new s/t high of $4697, but settled net lower by -$153 (3.3%) to $4454. Higher bond yields and a stronger dollar didn’t help on Friday. Weekly momentum is still increasingly positive.
Silver, weekly
Silver was net lower by -$2.61 (3.8%) to $66.34.
Weekly momentum ticked a little higher, settling fractionally negative.
GDX, weekly
The mining ETF printed a new s/t high of $105.67, if cooling to settle -$3.18 (3.1%) to $99.65. Momentum is still increasingly positive.
Even if the main market sees a correction of around 10% before the midterms, the metals/miners should comfortably hold above their summer lows. I am net bullish into/across 2027.
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Miscell’ things
*I will be inclined to add some extra things late Friday/Sat’, so check back at least once this weekend.
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$10K Gold before year end sounds like Krazy talk.
Even a new hist’ high >$5608, won’t be easy… assuming 1 or 2 rate hikes.
Regardless, I am net bullish gold into year end.
On a related note…
Ex Fed Governer Bullard
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*I’ve not watched yet.
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As things are, Bitcoin is net higher for August by +23.1%. Monthly momentum is ticking upward, prone to turning positive no later than Nov’2nd.
The ongoing monstrous volume – the highest since 2018, gives me confidence that the crypto market floored in July. If correct… net upside into next year.
Basic target is $100K, as looks viable as early as September.
Secondary bullish implications for HOOD, COIN, and for Mr Saylor’s MSTR
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‘We have Panic Cycle in both Russia and Britain for the week of October 5th as well as in the Euro but not the USA.’ – Armstrong
Indeed, I am distinctly twitchy about October.
I will be considerably calmer post midterms.
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The Zitron with his weekly rant on AI.
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Lin with guest Eisman of ‘The Big Short’.
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The weekly wrap on geo-politics is always recommended.
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The Carlson.. reflective of a number of red team cheerleaders, who want Trump removed. There is a valid concern things will turn nuclear.
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Something very different…
Being stranded at sea doesn’t sound so bad.
It sure is better than being stuck in a capital city.
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The weekend
Two days to rest/recover, and work a little.
I’m still struggling to motivate myself to finish my accounts, as I mostly just want to do nothing at the weekend.
As ever, feel free to message me via X, Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’ 12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail six of the US equity indexes (weekly candle charts).