It was a significantly bearish end to the week, the SPX settling -68pts (1.1%) to 5976, which made for a moderate net weekly decline of -23pts (0.4%). WTIC saw a very powerful net weekly gain of +$8.84 (13.7%) to $73.42.
sp’weekly1b
WTIC, monthly… for some perspective.
Summary
SPX: with a new cycle high of 6059, it should be seen as a net bullish week, with a higher high and higher low. Weekly momentum ticked upward, and is on the high side. I’d note the weekly 10MA at 5716, and that will offer major support around 5800 into end month.
WTIC: overnight Thurs’/Friday saw oil printing $77.62, the highest since early January. I’ve highlighted the bigger monthly chart, as I want you to reflect upon the price action in early 2022, when Russia made their move into Ukraine, with WTIC $126s… if briefly.
Right now, a push to $100 doesn’t look difficult. The issue is how long would prices remain that high? If I’m right that the Israel/Iran issue is NOT just a skirmish… then we can expect a broad climb into the summer. That won’t help equities, especially the transports.
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Dear Subscriber (or guest!)
Some perspective… SPX m1b
We’ve ten trading days left of June, with the SPX +65pts (1.1%) at 5976. Despite two months of gains… monthly momentum remains marginally negative. Equity bears should be seeking a monthly settlement back under the 10MA… call it <5800 to be decisive. Until that happens, there is still the possibility of a new hist’ high within July/August.
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Miscell’ things
*special note, I will usually add extra things late Friday/early Saturday, as they are uploaded by numerous creators. So… check back once, maybe late Sat’/Sunday.
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Israel/Iran
I could write pages, but I don’t have the time or the keystrokes left in me. I will instead summarise…
The Samson option should be a concern, as a number are rightly concerned that PM Net’ of Israel will eventually use nuclear weapons. Ohh, you think that is Krazy talk?
The ‘Israeli Mistake’, a legacy theory/scenario from one of the kooks – Clif High, but its valid, and it can be argued Friday, June 13th 2025, marks the beginning of something truly horrific.
As I type… videos have been posted, of what appear to be hypersonic missiles being used against Tel Aviv. This isn’t new though, as we’ve seen Iran and Yemen previously use them. Who is supplying them… Russia, China, or a shadowy independent ?
Its my view that this can’t be seen as just another skirmish. I expect matters to escalate into and across the summer. The prime concern should be oil prices… a sustained break >$100 would crucify the global economy, and massively increase the threat of a sustained and significant recession.
Eyes on the Strait of Hormuz, this weekend… and for some months to come. Its possible we’ll see ship Captains simply refusing to use it… even if Iran doesn’t blockade it.
As a few have said today… war has a habit of spreading. Anyone hoping this will have no implications for other places (not least China/Taiwan) don’t know their world history.
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Civil war is a semi-taboo in the UK. Just the mentioning of it could be deemed as causing ‘offense’, and such talk is largely illegal. Herr Starmer’s stasi-pigs are still going door to door, as around 12,000 a year are being persecuted for expressing non-narrative views.
The math is undeniable, for the UK, Ireland, and much of mainland Europe, its already over. There is no way back, as the culture is being systematically diluted… as supported by the political class.
In the past few years, many things have become clear… not least that London will itself become an independent Islamic city-state. Anyone living within London… if asked, without a camera/microphone running, would secretely agree. Whether its less than a decade, or 25-40 years out… it doesn’t really matter.
As someone with a front row seat, its an ongoing incredible… and traumatising thing to witness. But hey… the UK is a failed state, a physically, psychologically, and spiritually sick populace. Losing their capital city would be the ultimate ‘you got what you deserved’ outcome.
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*I’ve not watched. Lin with guest Gayed… should interest a few of you.
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This guy is usually worth your time.
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If anything, the Wolff is provoking. I don’t agree with a fair chunk of what he says, but still… its interesting to hear.
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A debt jubilee for the dumb indebted sheep?
That’d only encourage them to borrow more.
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I’m not saying he is wrong, but once the CBDCs are running, the various central banks will NOT allow any competition.
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Geo-pol’ chatter from Prof’ M…. highly recommended.
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Yet more geo-political chatter.
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The weekly wrap on geo-politics is also highly recommended.
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The Celente… calling it, for what it is. You might not like his cursive attitude, but that doesn’t make him wrong.
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The weekend
Two days to rest and recover… well, its never been enough. The one solace is that next week is a four day trading week, and soon after… July 4th week.
I’ve sideline entertainment from Gold Rush: Mine Rescue, Gold Rush: Whitewater, and I should resume Better Call Saul this Sunday night…
… as I wonder how they’ll wrap up this magnificent show.
As ever, feel free to message me via X, Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’ 12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail six of the US equity indexes (weekly candle charts)
re: X. I should take it light… but as ever, if there is something you’d like me to highlight, then let me know!