US equity indexes closed a little weak, SPX -14pts (0.3%) at 4778. Nasdaq comp’ -0.2%. Dow -0.2%. The Transports settled -0.5%. R2K -0.05%.
sp’60min
Summary
closing hour action: micro chop, leaning weak to break a new intraday low, as s/t momentum was increasingly negative.
*have added a fib’ retrace. I’d note the 38% is around 4702… with minor red gap, and psy’ 4700. I don’t expect it on Friday, but Mon/Tues’ looks realistic.
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… and that concludes a very sleepy Thursday. However, with a new historic high of 4808, it has to be seen as a net bullish day.
Friday is very difficult to call. Some stocks – esp’ commodities, are suggestive the main market will cool… if only for a day or two. Natural target remains the 4720/4700 zone.
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notable stock: XPO
We’ve a reversal candle from around the 50dma… and it leans distinctly s/t bearish. Soft target is the 10MA $74s.
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notable bond ETF: TLT
Bonds caught a bounce, but its arguably just s/t cyclical factors. 2022 bodes for at least two rate hikes… the first within March/April. If CPI >10%, then a rate hike every FOMC. I’d note that Celente (never to be dismissed lightly) sees rates maxing out around 1.5%. That would make for another lower cycle high… as has been the case since 1980.
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notable bank: BAC
Banks seeing minor chop with the main market. I hold. Psy’ $50 looks viable with Q4 earnings in mid/late Jan’.
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Here… it was a day of grey horror, an excuse to stay indoors and think about some of the year end posts that I need to be sketching out. Have a good evening!
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more later on the VIX and Indexes by 6pm EST