It was a bearish end to a net bearish week, the SPX settling -40pts (0.6%) to 6632, which made for a net weekly decline of -107pts (1.6%).
sp’weekly1b
Summary
SPX: the fifth net weekly decline of six, breaking a new cycle low of 6623, the lowest since mid November. Weekly momentum is increasingly negative, with zero sign of a floor/turn.
Whilst I lean s/t bullish (if only a few days), broader downside target is the 38% fib’ of 6174. That isn’t bold, not least considering the bigger monthly chart…
SPX, m1b
With 12 trading days left of March, the SPX is currently net lower by -246pts (3.6%). Monthly momentum is weakening for a fourth month, and is due to turn negative… no later than April 1st.
The setup is very similar to early 2025, when the SPX plunged from 6147>4835 : 1312pts (21.3%).
On the monthly chart, the more aggressive bears could look for a grander target of around 5500 within April or May.
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Dear Subscriber (or guest)
A note on oil
WTIC settled the week at $99.31. I would especially note monthly momentum, which turned positive in late February, and which is set to be increasingly positive into at least mid year.
Whether we settle the month above or below giant psy’ $100 doesn’t really matter. What does matter is that oil appears set to challenge the July 2008 hist’ high of $147. There is increasing background chatter of $200/250. I accept that sounds like Krazy talk, but a month ago… $119 would have been seen as such!
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A note on gold/silver
Gold, weekly
Gold declined for a second week, -$122 (2.4%) to $5022.
Weekly momentum weakened for a second week, and is due to turn negative by Monday March 23rd
Silver, weekly
Silver declined for the fifth week of seven, -$3.73 (4.4%) to $80.60.
Weekly momentum has turned negative for the first time since May
The stronger dollar isn’t helping Gold/silver…
As of late Friday, the USD stands at DXY 100.50. The break above the psy’ 100 threshold, and the monthly 10MA is very important. Monthly momentum is prone to turning positive as of April 1st.
If the Fed cut rates next Wednesday, that would help cool the King of FIAT land back lower.
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Miscell’ things
*I will be inclined to add some extra things (as they appear) late Friday/Sat’, so check back at least once this weekend.
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Friday AH chatter.
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If anything, I agree on the issue about private credit.
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*I’ve not watched.
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Recommended.
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The weekly wrap on geo-politics is highly recommended.
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The Carlson remains a net positive.
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The Celente… ever FURIOUS!
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AMD is as bad as NVDA, MU, and others. Without sounding like a filthy communist, the tech CEOs are all corporate pigs at the government trough. It makes me hope for a monstrous AI-bubble implosion.
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Something different… from Ms. Landers. In another timeline, I’m sailing somewhere in the western pacific, but I’d not want to be swimming with the sharks. Anyone got a spare boat, or cabin in the woods that I can hide in?
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An okay week
At the Monday open, I bailed on two financial shorts… KKR and JPM. Wednesday I had a micro gain in SLV-long.
Thursday I picked up a small block of SLV-long, and added a second today.
Silver was restrained into the weekend by weak equities. I’m pretty confident I’ll be able to exit both for a net gain… next Tues’ or Wed’.
My primary targets for the next cycle remain…
Long oil, via USO
Short fins… KKR, and perhaps JPM, AXP, or BX
Short airlines… UAL
For now, there appears no hurry on any of those things, until we’re on the flip side of the FOMC.
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The weekend
Two days to rest/recover, and work a little. I’ve sideline entertainment from Gold Rush, Mine Rescue, and probably a movie.
As ever, feel free to message me via X, Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’ 12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail six of the US equity indexes (weekly candle charts)