With a new s/t low of 5666, it was a net bearish end to a net bearish week, the SPX settling +31pts (0.5%) to 5770, which made for a net weekly decline of -184pts (3.1%).
sp’weekly2
Summary
SPX: a third consecutive net weekly decline. I’ll be the first to note, this week’s candle really doesn’t offer any sign of a floor. However, the daily chart (go look again!) does suggest that after FOUR tests of the 200dma, we probably do have a s/t floor.
S/t bullish… to around the 50dma, which in just over a week will be around the 61% fib’ of 5963.
re: Fib’ retrace of 3491>6147, as I wonder about the 4500s. Its not that bold, if you consider the bigger monthly index charts, all of which has rolled over.
Bears should tolerate a bounce, but arguably nothing above >6K, otherwise ‘normal service’ can be said to have resumed.
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Dear Subscriber
Some perspective…
Its arguably a case of whether we’ve just seen a pre-spring washout, or whether its the start of something bigger.
Tariff Man sure isn’t helping, and if the Fed don’t cut rates March 19th, we can expect complaints, or even threats by Trump for the US Treasury to take over monetary policy decisions.
It is quite a thought to wonder how Trump would react to the SPX falling by around 35%, whether a crashy move, or more stair step – like we saw in 2022. We’ve already seen him blame the ‘globalists’ !
Again, lets see how we settle the month, and whether its <5750 (to be decisive).
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A key ‘signal’ stock
I could highlight dozens of individual stocks, but for now… NVDA is as good a representative of the main market…
Its not looking so great, as we’re printing lower highs and lower lows. Momentum has turned negative for the first time since Feb’2023.
I see the stock as m/t broken. I’m not so much looking for giant psy’$100, as $50. I accept the latter as ‘crazy talk’, but its a valid target so long as we hold under the monthly 10MA ($124s)
… with the computer seeking the $89s. Its curious to see… relative to my wildly bearish target of $50.
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Miscell’ things
Special note… I endeavour to highlight what matters. I don’t expect you to agree with all of it, I’d almost be concerned if you did! What I do expect is that you question everything, whether its from CNN, FOX, Zerohedge.com or yours truly. If you can do that, you’ll be ahead of the curve.
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It is a strategically important area, and I can understand why Trump wants to seize it, and place military bases all over it.
*If only Trump/USA would invade the UK… remove Herr Starmer, secure the border, deport 8M, and bring freedom to the serfs… yours truly included.
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‘China will commit any of its military forces to Russia’s war effort against NATO, for they are NOT stupid. Once the West took Russia, they would move against China.’ – Armstrong
Indeed, if the Europeans are insane enough to deploy troops to directly kill Russian military and civilians, then China can be expected to become involved.
I’d expect 20/25M Chicoms to be placed along the front to defend Russia from the blood thirsty westerners.
My one hope is that the USA… under Trump, will sit this one out. To become involved, would be the death knell of the species, via a large scale nuclear exchange.
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The Carlson with the PM of Qatar. It is the case that anyone who supports peace these days takes a lot of flak.
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Today’s BLS jobs data wasn’t terrible, but the trend is leaning on the recessionary side, as the Atlanta Fed are touting Q1 GDP of -2.4%. See > https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
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More recessionary chatter
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CEO Neumeyer of First Majestic Silver (AG).
Silver, weekly
Silver had a very good week, +$1.32 (4.2%) to $32.81. The gain is impressive relative to the equity market. The weaker dollar certainly helped.
Silver bulls need a break/hold >$35.00 to offer hope of a grander push to the $49s. My concern is if the SPX has put in a m/t top from 6147. If yes, I can NOT expect silver to be net higher. Same for Bitcoin, as 85/95% of the time, main market downside will drag silver/miners/crypto lower.
Ohh, and as for gold…
Gold saw a net weekly gain of +$65.60 (2.3%) to $2914.10. Certainly, a push to test psy’ $3K is clearly viable within the near term. The only concerns would be a rebound in bond yields and/or the dollar.
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Rickards is usually worth your time.
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Celente rightly points out Trump made ZERO mention of Israel/Gaza in Tuesday’s speech. How long until Israel resumes the carpet bombing of the 1.7M surviving Gazans, as funded by the USA ?
Ohh, but its not ethnic cleansing, so long as its done by the USA or Israel, right? You don’t think I’ll ever stop calling it, for what it is?
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The weekly wrap on geo-politics. Get a coffee or something first.
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The weekend
Two days… to do as little as possible. I’ve sideline entertainment from Gold Rush, a movie, and probably more Better Call Saul…
With no Kim in Breaking Bad, I’m guessing it doesn’t end so well for her in this show. The show itself is a slow burn, but I’m fine with that.
As ever, feel free to message me via X, Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’ 12pm EST @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail six of the US equity indexes (monthly candle charts).