US equity indexes closed rather mixed, SPX +11pts (0.3%) at 3948. Nasdaq comp’ +1.0%. Dow +0.2%. The Transports settled -0.2%. R2K -0.5%.
sp’daily5
nasdaq comp’
r2k
transports
Summary
SPX: opening broadly higher, and climbing to 4007. There was a turn from around 11am, with downside to 3919, and settling +0.3% to 3948. Today’s candle is black, and leans s/t bearish, at least for part of Friday. Momentum subtly ticked upward, and remains marginally positive.
I’d note the upper daily bollinger is now on the decline – currently 4055, and will soon act as another wall of resistance around 4K before end month.
Today’s failed bounce, and close <4K gives some confidence we won’t see any price action above the upper bollinger.
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NAS: the seventh daily gain of nine, settling +1.0% to 11787. Today’s candle is black, and leans s/t bearish, at least for part of Friday. The recent double top of the 12200s should hold. M/t bearish. Any price action <10k would be decisive, and offer grander target of the March 2020 low of 6631.
R2K: a second day lower, settling -0.5% to 170.20. Today’s print of 168.71 merits alarm bells, as it takes out the double low of the 169s. I’d be open to a brief/limited bounce, but more importantly, the door is OPEN to the Oct’ 161s.
Trans: the third day lower of four, settling -0.2% to 13686.
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VIX’daily
Volatility was very mixed, the VIX seeing an 11am low of 20.16, spiking to 24.91, and settling +1.6% to 22.61. Whilst momentum ticked lower, today’s candle is arguably bullish engulfing… as the body of the candle exceeds Wednesday’s body, if not the lower spikes).
The VIX bulls could seek 33/35 next week, which might sync with a test of the SPX Dec’ low of 3764.
*I still see SPY PUTS, as more straight forward than VIX CALLS, whilst monthly VIX momentum remains negative.
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Looking ahead by 6pm EST