The SPX printed a new s/t high of 4039, but the day ended outright ugly, settling -1.6% to 3936. Meanwhile, WTIC settled +$1.23 (1.8%) to $70.90.
sp’weekly1b
WTIC daily
Summary
SPX: This week’s candle is very spiky on the upper side… indicative of s/t bullish exhaustion. Weekly momentum has turned back to negative.
Bears should be seeking to take out the Dec’ low of 3764. Once achieved, it’d give extra confidence the Oct’ low of 3491 will be lost within April, and then onward to the next flooring zone of 3200/3000. The latter IS viable, if not probable by mid May.
WTIC: oil climbed for a third day, helped by the (initially) positive main market, and the weaker dollar. S/t bearish. M/t bearish to psy’ $50.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, intl’ trade, new home sales
Earnings: ACN, GIS, DRI
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Final note
Two Bloomberg cheerleaders, and the worst fund manager of the early 21st century. As ‘freakshow entertainment’, it doesn’t get much better.
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For those with a serious interest in the macro, Mr Long always merits your time.
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I’m no fan of FOX Business, but Langone isn’t one to sit on the fence.
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It was a good Fed day
Sometimes… its good to be patient.
Original target of ‘around 4030’ was hit… I went short at 4017, the market dropped to 3972… a bounce to 4013, but then ‘normal service’ resumed to settle at 3936.
I’m going to hope Thursday opens somewhere south of 3900.
I’m already rather significantly profitable, and I’d look to exit on any gap lower.
That doesn’t mean we can’t just fall straight to the Dec’ low of 3764 ‘within days’, but for me it’d make for a fifth green trade, and that is what I want before the weekend.
Next week, I’d look to re-short via a generic SPY PUT trade, but also have 1 or 2 secondary positions. The regional banking ETF of KRE (May or June PUTs) comes to mind.
In any case… I needed a good day, and I had one. I hope your day was at least half as good.
I’ll end today with a steaming bath to soothe my back, and then 3×04 of the Mandalorian.
Goodnight from London
This is the way.