Good morning. US equity futures are a little higher (as at 8.16am EST), SPX +12pts, we’re set to open at 3801. USD is +0.3% at DXY 110.67. The precious metals are leaning weak, Gold -$6 (printing $1663), with Silver -0.5%. WTIC is +0.6% in the $83s.
sp’60min
Summary
Yesterday was a rather typical fed day… a lot of chop into 2pm, and then some swings. The closing hour ended on an ugly note. S/t momentum ticked lower, is fractionally negative, and is due to turn negative at today’s open (even if we open positive).
Key price magnet/support… 3700.
Equity bulls should be concerned if the June 3636 low is taken out (whether Friday… or overnight Sunday), its open air to 3400, and then 3200. Certainly, the bigger weekly/monthly charts offer far lower levels into/across Oct’.
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As for yours truly….
I should just short something with the next micro cycle high…
spx’5min
I’m seeking a little bounce/retrace to sp’3810/20… with VIX 26s.
Position targets…
VIX Oct’19th CALLS… strike 28/30 or so.
IWM Oct’21st $165/160 PUTS.
If I pick up anything today, the core intention is to hold across the weekend.
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Early movers
AAPL -0.3%
AMD -0.4%
BCS +2.5%, bouncing UK fins
BHP +3.7%
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COIN +0.2%
Bitcoin is +3.4% in the $19000s
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CRM +2.5%, post ‘investor day’ gains
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DB +5.7%, bouncing EU/German fins
DRI -2.5%, post earnings cooling
DVN +0.8%
F +0.5%
FCX +1.5%, with copper +3cents to $3.49
GOLD -0.4%
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HOOD +6.4%, news?
KBH -0.6%, post earnings cooling
LEN +1.3%, post earnings gains
LI +4.8%
NIO +2.1%
NVDA -0.5%
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NVAX -5.9%, JPM, neutral>underweight, 132>27. An embarrassingly late downgrade.
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OXY +0.5%
RIG +0.7%
RIO +3.2%
SQ -2.6%
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TLT -0.3%, as yields climb
TSLA +0.5%
UAL +1.0%
UNG -1.3%, with Natgas $7.73
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VIX -0.8% in the 27s
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X +0.8%
XOM +0.4%
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Overnight markets
Asian and European markets both leaning on the weaker side…
Japan: -0.6% to 27153
China: -0.3% to 3108
Germany: currently -0.6% at 12690
UK: currently -0.1% at 7227
The BoE has raised rates, if only by 50bps. Even though rates are still a historically low 2.25%, its making a great many of those loaded with debt ever more concerned.
This early morning, I see a print of 1.1233, as parity is… coming!
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Have a good Thursday