Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, SPX -16pts, we’re set to open at 4415. USD is -0.1% at DXY 97.16. The precious metals are a little higher, Gold +$2, with Silver +0.3%. WTIC is -0.2% in the $86s.
sp’60min
Summary
Yours truly slept a collective 30 hours between Friday night and Monday morning. The cable guys are effectively finished… no more being awoken at 3am EST. Thank the gods!
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Last Friday started weak, but ended on a distinctly positive note, as s/t momentum picked up, settling on the moderately high side.
Overnight futures have been moderately mixed, we’re currently set to open a little weak, but it won’t take much to swing higher. Upper bollinger resistance 4454, with upper side of what is a big bear flag… 4500.
As its end month, the chartists – yours truly included, will be especially focused on how we settle today. Even if we end +1% today, it won’t negate what has been a very bearish start to the year. If we settle below 4400… it will merely remind some that February won’t likely be much better.
Yours truly is sitting at the desk. There is a paper note in front of me…
My ‘shopping’ targets…
FCX, LAC, UEC
OXY, SLB, RIG, KMI
X, CLF,
BAC, MOS, CFVI
A fair number of those are at VERY attractive buying levels, but whenever I look at the monthly charts… it spooks me. A monthly close under the 10MA (4427) bodes for a natural target of the lower bollinger… currently around 3K. I fully accept the latter as ‘crazy talk’, but then so were the 2500s, when sp’3200s in Feb’2020.
Further, I ain’t the only one spooked, AJ of marketrebellion.com literally called for the end of the bull market…
As ever, neither yours truly or AJ has a time machine. However, both of us do offer something most don’t…. perspective. The monthly charts are massively important in shaping the short and mid term price action.
The fact that monthly momentum in the Nasdaq and R2K has already turned negative, with the rest of the indexes to follow in February spooks me.
So… I ain’t buying anything, at least until we break under last Monday’s low of 4222. If price action looks okay, maybe I’ll pick up some things for a s/t trade, but not from the 4400/4500s.
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Early movers
AMC -2.0%, another great start to the week for the lunatics of Wallstreetbets
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AMD +1.2%, earnings Tues’ AH
AMZN +0.7%, earnings Thurs’ AH
BAC -1.0%
BB -6.7%, sold legacy patents for $600M
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BYND +4.5%, Barclays, underweight>overweight, 70>80. Maybe Barclays should try those KFC fake chicken pieces.
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CLF -0.5%
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COIN -0.1%
Bitcoin is -2.4% in the $36000s. A long series of lower highs and lower lows.
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F -0.5%
FCX -0.2%, with copper +1cent to $4.32
GDX +0.5%
HOOD -4.4%, Ms. Wood of Ark buying more garbage
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MRNA -1.5%
NFLX +2.7%, Citi neutral>buy, $450
OXY -0.6%
PINS -0.9%, the m/t horror continues. MKM downgrade
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PTON -0.4%, no sign of a short/mid term floor
RIO -2.7%
SLB -0.6%
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SPOT +1.7%. The war continues. CEO Ek has seemingly pandered somewhat to the psychotics. Further, I see chatter that Rogan himself has apologised and said he will be more balanced.
My thoughts on the controversy with @spotify https://t.co/nijJgNSc7m
— Joe Rogan (@joerogan) January 31, 2022
Such pandering to the psychos will only encourage them. I almost wish Spotify would just fire Rogan and be done with it. Its pathetic.
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T -0.9%
TSLA +1.4%, Credit Suisse, neutral>outperform, $1025
TLT -0.1%, yields a touch higher
TLRY -1.8%
TWTR -0.3%
UAL -1.0%
UNG +5.8%, with Nat’ gas +29cents to $4.92
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VIX +5% in the 29s
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WFC -1.2%
X -0.6%
XOM -0.5%
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Overnight markets
Those Asian markets that were open ended the month on a positive note. European markets are leaning fractionally higher.
Japan: +1.1% at 27001
China: CLOSED
South Korea: CLOSED
Germany: currently +0.3% at 15371
UK: currently +0.04% at 7469
Russia: currently +1.8% at 1432
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Have a good Monday