US equities saw yet another failed bounce, the SPX printing 4428, but settling -23pts (0.5%) to 4326. Meanwhile, WTIC settled -$0.74 (0.8%) to $86.61.
sp’weekly2
WTIC daily
Summary
SPX: as things are, we’re set for a fourth consecutive net weekly decline, the worse run since August 2019. The current candle remains similar to early March 2020, with the following three weeks ‘not so pretty’.
I’d actually be more focused on how next Monday/January settles, than tomorrow. Anything <4400 would be decisive, although the bears have little to prove, with monthly momentum already negative in the Nasdaq comp’ and R2K. The setup for February is pretty damn ugly.
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WTIC: oil printed a new cycle high of $88.54, if cooling back to settle in the mid $86s, not helped by the main market reversal, and the stronger dollar. If the main market does implode into/across Feb’, natural target for oil would be the 50dma in the $76s.
The wild card is Ukraine… which if things ‘develop’, then oil prices might spike on pure geo-political upset… even if the main market falls.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see Pers’ income/outlays, employment cost, consumer sent’
Earnings: CVX, PSX, CAT
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PF chart of the day
Computer holds a bearish target of $751 (look to the top left number, the one on the right is skewed… due to the scale).
Tesla, monthly
Tesla settled today -11.5% to $829s, a severe case of post earnings depression.
I’d note the monthly 10MA at $835… which we’re now below.
Monthly momentum looks prone to turning negative at the Feb’1st open.
The January candle is bearish engulfing, and it bodes ugly for February.
Natural target is the 550/500 zone… which does look due.
If correct, main market implications.
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Final note
Always superb from Heyling and Weinstein.
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This is truly bizarre. How the hell can this happen in the ‘land of the free’?
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Back in late summer/autumn 2019, the global financial system would have collapsed, were it not for the US Fed, which resorted to offering multi-trillion credit lines to anyone that asked.
The names of the institutions and amounts are now known. What remains a mystery…. what the hell were they losing money on back then? In any case… its good to have some closure on those ‘little Earthquakes’, that I was highlighting (with a fair few others) back in 2019.
… and the timing… just before C19, remains ‘ohh so curious’.
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Ohh, and there was this…
"Don't you still own Moderna?"
– Ms. Bryn Talkington to the Weiss.@BrynTalkington @stephenLweiss @petenajarian pic.twitter.com/3QNPWojYS3— Philip Calrissian (@Trading_Sunset) January 27, 2022
I’ll always be one to take swipes at clown finance TV, but it does have its moments. Bryn’s retort to the Weiss for his Moderna (it was at least partly hedged via puts) was pretty amusing.
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Day’4… another 2 or 3 to go… before I can sleep better.
Goodnight from London
Yours… burnt out.