Merry Christmas

US equities climbed into Christmas, the SPX printing 4740, and settling +29pts (0.6%) to 4725, which made for a net weekly gain of +105pts (2.3%). Meanwhile, WTIC settled +$1.03 (1.4%) to $73.79, which made for a net weekly gain of +$3.07 (4.3%).

sp’weekly1b

WTIC weekly

Summary

SPX: A very significant net weekly gain, which was especially impressive, having swung from a Monday low of 4531. Momentum ticked upward, and is due to turn positive next week. Whilst this week’s close was 6pts shy of being a bullish engulfing candle, it still offers new historic highs next week, as Tom Lee’s 4800s appear a given.
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WTIC: oil climbed for a third consecutive day. This week’s candle is of the bullish engulfing type, and bodes bullish into year end. Soft resistance 74/75/76s, and then psy’ $80. The latter looks a stretch next week.

More broadly, giant psy’ $100 appears still on the menu. That will no doubt rile up many, including the Biden admin’, who were (largely incorrectly) touting lower gas prices this week. I’d imagine the political hacks, mainstream media, and Mr Market itself will be rather annoyed with $100 oil and gasoline >$5, late spring/summer 2022.

Of course… sustainably higher oil would be very bullish for the related energy stocks, which I still see as the most straight forward trade/investment. Yours truly will sleep very comfortably into 2022, with the sextet of OXY, SLB, MRO, RIG, KMI, and XOM.
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Dear Subscriber

… and that concludes Christmas week at the world’s most entertaining, twisted, and rigged casino. The week sure started on a rough note, but we ended distinctly positive. Some perspective…

With just five trading days left of 2021, the SPX is currently +158pts (3.5%) at 4725. Regardless of next Friday’s exact settlement, its been a very bullish year for almost everything. Notable exceptions are the precious metals, bonds, some of the ‘stay at home’ stocks, and most of the things that Cathy Wood owns.

I am very much thinking about 2022, if also reading around, and reflecting upon what others are already saying. I’ll likely publish an edited outlook on my public blog, and you’ll have a full version here… by early January.
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Highly recommended…

Tom Lee of Fundstrat always merits attention. He appears open to a big push to around 5k in early 2022, before some cooling, with a second half push. WTIC to $120 is bold, but its viable, with JPM recently touting $125.

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C19 chatter

I was wondering whether to post this (I’m somewhat adverse to annoying some of you), but still… it should be highlighted…

So… Trump says the vax is responsible for avoiding millions of deaths. I could accept that.

The problem is the lack of longitudinal data. That issue simply can’t just be ignored. Trumps ‘operation warp speed’ has arguably helped many in the short/mid term, but the long term effects… no one can yet say. It remains the biggest medical gamble in the history of the species.

Ohh, and the little dismissal at the end against the anti-vaxxers in the audience. That is somewhat telling, and its rather contemptible.

The underlying issue is whether you believe in freedom of choice. If you do, that also necessitates being against all the mandates, and ALL forms of coercion (such as threat of being fired) or bribery (such as the New York Major offering $100 to get boosted).

I’d argue there is no solution to be found on either side of the political aisle, and if you agree with that, then you will recognise things will remain difficult for ‘the resistance’ into 2022 and beyond.

The truly scary thing is that so many just don’t see things with any degree of clarity. We’ve a literal traumatised populace, with varying degrees of psychosis.

Perhaps the most insane thing I’ve heard in the past week…

From Australia… where someone said they need to vax the children, to make them less afraid that they’d infect and kill their grandparents.

A medical treatment/drug to help them ‘feel less afraid’ is not justification for any treatment/drug. Its utter madness. Every injured/dead child is to be put on the ledger of all those who have actively supported the mandates.

Speaking of C19 policy and its effect on children..

Superb as ever, Heyling and Weinstein. There are some truly disturbing long term issues, in terms of child development, that few want to think about. Its my view that the damage has been done, and in most cases… its irrevocable. Most will never lead a ‘normal life’, be rife with fear, which in some will turn into unrestrained fury.

Stray note… can you imagine the type of leaders we’ll get when the current 0-15 demographic reach 35-45yrs of age, and find their way into positions of power?
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… and we have Dore highlighting the gross conflicts of interest, with big pharma’ having bought/paid the mainstream media. As ever, where money is involved… there will be elements of corruption, morally… if not legally.

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Yours truly will sleep well at night, knowing I’ve ZERO responsibility for any of this. I’ve never jumped through one single hoop. I’ve shopped online, and left everyone else to revel in their hysteria and psychosis.

How this plays out in 2022 and beyond… remains impossible to say. Again, I’d look for ‘unexplained’ or ‘surprise’ deaths at the coming Winter Olympics in China. The mainstream are going to have a real tough time, if more than 1 or 2 happen to die during the games – due Feb 4th>20th.

What I remain clear on… the only hope for the resistance is with a mass die off, and yeah… that is the most un-Christmas thing you’ll ever read, but hey… I’ll never be anything other than straight talk.

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Rising moon… above the urban freeway

Christmas 2021

For some, its time to be prepare for family/friends. A time to catch up, eat, drink, and reflect upon the year. I hope most of you will be surrounded by good, warm hearted people.

For others, its an especially difficult time of year. I’m reminded of the phrase uttered by Marilyn Monroe (The Misfits, 1961) “If I’m going to be alone, I want to be by myself”. As a teen that always resonated with me. Some three decades later… it still does.

I’d suggest a few good movies. ‘Don’t look up’… from Netflix. There is also ‘Matrix Resurrections’, although I can understand if you’d prefer that within a theater. The Witcher and Squidgame – both Netflix, are tier’1 quality, although the latter sure isn’t ‘light viewing’. Hawkeye (just six episodes) from Disney was very good… even if you’re not a Marvel fanboy/girl.

In any case… for what its worth… I wish you a Merry Christmas, get some rest, and enjoy some time away from the flashing green/red boxes.
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As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.

Goodnight from London

yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear likely appear on Friday @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail six of the US equity indexes (weekly candle charts).

*the next scheduled post on this page, will be the pre-market brief, 8.30am EST, Monday Dec’27th.