US equity indexes closed significantly lower, SPX -55pts (1.3%) at 4166. Nasdaq comp’ -0.9%. Dow -1.6%. The Transports settled -1.3%. R2K -2.4%.
sp’daily5
nasdaq comp’
r2k – via proxy IWM
transports
Summary
SPX: a fourth consecutive day lower, settling -55pts (1.3%) to 4166, the first close under the 50dma since early March. Momentum ticked lower for a fourth day. RSI 43s, and there is potential for further downside next week.
Provisional alarm bells if <4056, and outright alarm if <4K. However, on balance, I don’t see that, and instead expect renewed upside into the 4300s, whether before end month, or early July
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NAS: settling -130pts (0.9%) to 14030. Momentum ticked lower for a fourth day. Bulls could argue s/t price structure offers a bull flag, and I would agree, as new historic highs (>14211) are very viable next week.
R2K: a fifth consecutive day lower, settling -2.4% to 224.90. Momentum turned negative today, with zero sign of a s/t floor/turn. Broadly… stuck since February. I could understand some of the bears pointing at this index and saying ‘see….. its a sign of trouble!’.
My response would be…. ‘I’d refer you to any of the other indexes, most of which have recently broken new historic highs. Not every index/sector has to climb month, after month…. after month’.
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Trans: a third consecutive day lower, settling -197pts (1.3%) to 14622, the lowest level since late March. RSI 30s… officially oversold, the lowest since March 2020 !
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VIX’daily
VIX weekly
With equities falling into the weekend, volatility picked up, the VIX settling +16.6% to 20.70. Momentum ticked upward, and is on the moderately high side.
For the week, the VIX gained +32.3%. Momentum ticked upward, settling fractionally positive. Most notable… this was the first weekly settlement above the key 20 threshold since mid March (which is arguably being reflected by the SPX settling below the 50dma).
Upper weekly bollinger offers next resistance in the 25s. Again, on balance though, I’m looking for equities to resume upward.
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a little more… by 6pm EST