US equities open almost exactly like yesterday. The SPX remains pretty firmly stuck under the hist’ high of 4238. Thursday’s CPI data will likely be key as to whether the market can break up and away, or if we see some powerful cooling toward sp’4000.
sp’60min
VIX’60min
Summary
Little to add. We have to expect considerable chop.
If we do break >4238, it’d be pretty supportive to the scenario that the market knows tomorrow’s CPI will come in cooler than some fear.
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notable bond ETF: TLT
Yields cooling back. Either the bond market is telling us it intuitively knows the inflation data will be ‘lower than expected’, or its a dumb/risky move ahead of Thursday.
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notable weakness: BAC
US banks cooling back with yields. Wells Fargo’s Mike Mayo upgrades to $52s… as once again, the mainstream catch up to yours truly.
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notable energy: OXY
Cowen 26>30. A late call. The stock is s/t very over-stretched, and arguably… even the bold won’t be chasing here.
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notable miner: FCX
Freeport still looks vulnerable to 37/36. I will sit back… and wait.