It was a net bullish end to a net bullish week, the SPX printing a new hist’ high of 6671, and settling +32pts (0.5%) to 6664, which made for a net weekly gain of +80pts (1.2%).
sp’weekly1b
Summary
SPX: … clearly… a net bullish week, with the fib’ chart (yet again) adjusted upward. Weekly momentum ticked a little higher, and remains on the moderately high side. Weekly RSI 70s… the highest since July 2024, just before there was a four week cooling wave of around 10%.
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Dear Subscriber
With seven trading days left of Sept’/Q3, the SPX is currently +204pts (3.2%) at 6664, having printed a new hist’ high of 6671. Monthly momentum is increasingly positive, offering ZERO sign of a m/t ceiling/turn.
We’re set for another monthly settlement above the key monthly 10ma (6063), as the m/t trend is unquestionably bullish.
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Global bonds
First, note the UK 10yr gilt (or bond)… 4.72%. Why would anyone not expect this to break >5.00% ? Here… its the fourth year of stagflation, a disintegrating society and economy. There is an ‘autumn budget’ due Nov’26th, and it threatens major civil and economic turmoil.
Even yours truly would likely be affected, as I see chatter they might lower the sales tax registration threshold from $120K to just $40K. Many low tier sole traders would just close, as they don’t want the burden of becoming (sales tax is 20%) collectors for the UK Govt.
As most of you understand, its bad here, but its only to going to get far worse. I expect an eventual sovereign bond default within 3-5 years, a currency collapse of >50%, and subsequent hyper-inflation.
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The US 10yr yield stands at 4.13%, but even this could be expected to eventually break >5.00%. Why wouldn’t it… after the ‘big beautiful bill’, which will take the US debt mountain to $50trn by 2030.
There are two ways for the US Govt’ to stop yields climbing.
First… have the Fed buy bonds, pressuring bond prices up and yields down.
Second… convert the USD into a Stablecoin based system, the latter of which has to be backed by US bonds, and thus creating an inherent and sustained demand for bonds.
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Germany… 2.75%, for what is the economic powerhouse of Europe, but its also a nation in turmoil (if far less than the UK). Its become clear, unless AFD take power ‘soon’, East Germany will want to break away.
Japan… 1.64%, as the ultimate problem is an accelerating demographic collapse. There has been a push for mass immigration, but the PM recently resigned for this very attempt.
Sure… equities are getting expensive, but would you rather a Govt’ bond instead?
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Miscell’ things
*I will be inclined to add some extra things (as they appear) late Friday/Sat’, so check back at least once this weekend.
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The Whalen… 38mins, go get a tea or coffee first.
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Inflation chatter from the Maloney, as the USD has lost around a third of its purchasing power since 2020.
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*I’ve not watched yet, but this looks rather good.
Silver printed the low $43s on Friday. Its cyclically high on the weekly, with RSI 75s. I don’t expect a burst >$50 this side of Halloween.
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Gold chatter… pretty good!
Gold this week printed a new hist’ high of the $3707s. Weekly momentum is on the moderately high side, RSI 73s.
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Inflation IS still a problem, as many are exhausting their backup funds.
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The genius act does appear a valid concern in terms of privacy and govt’ control.
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Certainly… this market feels bubbly.
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This guy usually merits your time.
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First, I’m not a fan of Hedges or guest Blumenthal. The latter especially riles me up.
Yours truly wasn’t fortunate enough to be born in the USA. Unlike some, I’d not sneak across the border. Instead, I would request entry at the border. What a radical notion huh?
Seriously, what is Trump supposed to do?
If you believe only Citizens have the right to live/work in the USA, then you have to accept the notion of hit-squad teams to round up the MILLIONS.
It ain’t pretty, and yes… occasionally, you’ll even have issues with a genuine citizen who struggles to prove (at least initially) they are a Citizen.
This week, I’ve seen Celente and Napolitano both whine about ICE and the ‘papers please’ issue. On this… I don’t agree, as the risk is you’ll become like the UK/Europe, irrevocably broken, and culturally destroyed.
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The weekly wrap on geo-politics is highly recommended.
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If you’re not a fan of Carlson… that is fine!
I don’t expect you to like everything I highlight.
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The raging Celente. As ever… just because I highlight him, doesn’t mean I agree with everything he says.
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The weekend
Two days to rest and recover, although I’ve work to do… but its becoming more manageable.
I’ve sideline entertainment from Bering Sea Gold, and probably a movie.
As ever, feel free to message me via X, Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’ 12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail six of the US equity indexes (weekly candle charts).
X: I will cover earnings Sunday evening. As ever, if there is something you’d like me to highlight, let me know.