US equities open a little choppy. VIX printed a new cycle low of 16.51. WTIC printed $66.48, with next resistance at psy’$70.
sp’60min
VIX’60min
Summary
Headline y/y: 2.4% vs 2.3% prior
Core y/y: 2.8% vs 2.8% prior
Sure, you can argue inflation isn’t spiking, but neither is it falling toward the Fed’s 2.0% target. Does anyone really think a rate cut is coming this summer?
On the contrary… watch the US 10yr yield, which appears prone to breaking >5.00% this Sept/Oct’. It would be the excuse for an equity washout.
As for equities… a new cycle high of 6050, if reversing lower.
I’d lean net bearish into Thursday.
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notable stock: TSLA
Higher… partly on hopes of the Robotaxi.
The opening black candle merits mild concern.
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notable tech: QBTS
Higher on $400M capital raise. Comments from Nvidia CEO are further helping, on hopes of a big push for quantum computing. The cautious will quietly watch into October.
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notable defence: LMT
F35 jet order cut from 48 to 24. Broadly though, its a token cut, as Trump remains proud of his $1trn defense budget.
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notable steel: CLF
As I’ve repeated for months… anyone buying on spurious positive days, will be vulnerable to adverse tariff news. The $3s are clearly viable by this Oct’. Good company/CEO… one for the shopping list.