It was a bearish Easter Monday, the SPX printing 5101, if recovering to settle -2.4% to 5158.
sp’weekly1b
Summary
SPX: Not so pretty, but I’d note the weekly candle is spiky from key price threshold of 5100. Best guess… we see net weekly gains THIS week, and broader multi-week upside to the 5700s with VIX 20s.
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Looking ahead
Tuesday has no econ-data scheduled.
Earnings: $VZ $GE $LMT $RTX $DHR $DGX $HAL $ELV $SYF $KMB $TSLA $ISRG $ENPH $SAP $COF $STLD $BKR $RRC $WFRD $ZWS
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Final note
The USD has next support in the DXY 89/88s. With a 3x beta to the dollar, gold might print $4K. For now, $10K would clearly require a monetary reset, and I do NOT expect that this year.
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Capital controls are a major concern… if not for a few more years.
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Walen is especially recommended. Go get a coffee first.
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Geo-political chatter
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Meanwhile, back in crypto land…
Good Friday I fixed my Coinbase account, finally managing to get it to accept a new phone number. I’ve not used the account since May 2021.
Today, I picked up an XRP block (from $2.11), if only to get used to the platform… which has a few quirks. I should manage a green exit, preferably from $2.70 or higher.
Coinbase commissions are annoying, but it IS a service, and they have servers to pay for… just as I do.
Ohh, and to be clear, I hold to the notion that if you’re net bearish equities, you should be net bearish crypto. I just happen to see crypto leaning upward with SPX 5700s this May/June.
So… the aim is to sell XRP, and then wait until October, when the equity market will be prone to flooring.
I’d accept you could call it an unnecessary distraction, but still… the background chatter on XRP is ‘curious’, much as Bitcoin was in 2012.
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… such an intense scene! Tonight… the season four finale.
Goodnight from London