It was a bearish month for equities, SPX -42pts (0.8%) to 5569, with the Dow -1332pts (3.2%) to 40669. WTIC fell -$13.18 (18.4%) to $58.30. Copper cooled by 48cents (9.6%) to $4.55. The USD weakened by -449bps to DXY 99.68. The US 10yr yield declined by -5bps to 4.16%.
SPX, monthly
Printing 4835 – the lowest since Jan’2024, but bouncing to 5581, and settling broadly lower at 5569. Monthly momentum ticked lower for a fifth consecutive month, settling marginally negative. The second consecutive monthly settlement under the key 10MA, as the market is m/t broken. Vol’ was a heavy 7.7bn
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Dow, monthly
Printing 36611 – the lowest since Dec’2023, but bouncing to settle at 40669. Monthly momentum ticked lower for a fifth consecutive month, settling marginally negative. The second consecutive monthly settlement under the key 10MA. Note vol’ was a massive 16bn.
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WTIC, monthly
A high of $72.28, swinging severely low to $56.06, and settle at $58.30. Monthly momentum ticked back lower, and hasn’t been positive in almost three full years. Next support is around psy’ $50.00… as appears an eventuality. The upside wild card is the middle east, but isn’t it always?
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Copper, monthly
Printing $5.13, but imploding to $4.02, and settling at $4.55. The monthly close back under psy’ $5.00 should concern the m/t equity bulls. Alarm bells if <$4.00, which would be supportive of the SPX eventually breaking a new low <4835.
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USD, monthly
The King of FIAT land weakened for a fourth consecutive month. The loss of the DXY 100 threshold merits alarm bells, with next support 89/88s. The latter is inherently bullish ALL dollar denominated asset classes, not least gold and equities.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
The US 10yr yield declined for a fourth consecutive month, not helped by the weaker dollar, and with the market increasingly concerned about a recession. Broadly… its ALL chop. Bullish >5.00%, bearish <3.25%.
Best guess… further cooling into the Fall, but then soaring on a secondary inflationary wave. I’m looking for an eventual break >psy’5.00, and then onward to 7.00%. The latter would annoy many, but higher yields would be inherently bullish, especially for the US financials.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see Weekly jobs, PMI & ISM manu’, construction, vehicle sales
Earnings: $MCD $SHAK $LLY $RBLX $CVS $MA $SIRI $BAX $PWR $BLDR $AMZN $AAPL $RIOT $ABNB $RDDT $BBAI $TEAM $FIVN $AIG $AJG
Event: it will be the start of a new month, with another wheel barrow of cash for the institutions to spend, and will typically lean bullish.
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Miscell’ things
As ever, make of that, what you will.
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Gold chatter… as $4K is clearly an eventuality, and then onward to $5K.
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First, it remains bizarre how it took Russia so long to counter the invasion into Kursk. There are s/t concerns of a near term false flag within Moscow.
More broadly, India/Pakistan is an overlooked flashpoint.
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The Celente… furious at the Presidential hypocrisy.
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The Carlson with Walsh. Whatever you might think of either, the central point IS valid.
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Final note
We’re a third of the way through another year. Life in the land of yours truly remains… bizarre. Just this evening, some girl in PJs was standing outside my bedroom window, trying to grab a cat that had climbed up onto the walkway.
Personally, I’m on course to end… some time within July-September. There is no realistic hope. I’m tired, and don’t even have the energy to apply for a ‘real job’. I’m utterly… fucking… screwed.
I’ve thought about taking a week or two off, but whats the point? I’d probably do nothing, and just sleep most of it.
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Hank! A surprise to be sure, but a welcome one… as Better Call Saul is all I have left until my demise. There is Andor (I see another 3 episodes dropped last night), but I’m not even in the mood for that, as I’ve enough horror in my life already.
Goodnight from London