It was a bearish month for equities, SPX -342pts (5.7%) at 5611, with the Nasdaq comp’ -1547pts (8.2%) to 17299. WTIC gained +$1.72 (2.5%) to $71.48. Copper climbed +49cents (10.7%) to $5.03. The USD weakened by -344bps to DXY 104.18. The US 10yr yield cooled by -1bp to 4.21%.
SPX, monthly
A second month lower. Monthly momentum ticked lower, and is due to turn negative as of April 1st. A decisive monthly settlement below the 10MA (5762), as the m/t bullish trend has been broken.
Prime target is around 4800.
Time frame… October.
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Nasdaq comp’, monthly
A second month lower. Monthly momentum ticked lower, and is due to turn negative as of April 1st. A decisive monthly settlement below the 10MA (18363), as the m/t bullish trend has been broken. 14k looks realistic by June/July.
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WTIC, monthly
Oil printed $65.22, if bouncing to settle very significantly higher at $71.48. Broadly… its all chop… bullish >$80, bearish <$65. Monthly momentum ticked a little higher, and might turn positive in May.
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Copper, monthly
Copper printed a new hist’ high of $5.37. The first ever monthly settlement >psy’ $5.00. Monthly momentum ticked upward, but is only marginally positive. Copper is one very positive sign, and argues against the m/t bearish equity outlook.
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USD, monthly
The king of FIAT land depreciated for a third consecutive month. Monthly momentum ticked back lower, and is due to turn negative as of April 1st. Alarm bells if <100… which would threaten the 89/88s.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
The US 10yr yield cooled for a third month, if only by a single basis point. Monthly momentum weakened a little, but broadly… I see it as ALL chop. Bullish >5.00. Bearish <3.25%. I lean to an eventual upside break… whether late this year, or 2026.
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Looking ahead
Tuesday will see PMI & ISM manu’, construction, JOLTS, vehicle sales
Earnings: $EVAX $NCNO $SPWH
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Miscell’ things
*I’ve not watched, but I’m sure some of you will be interested in some gold chatter.
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… the answer is YES !
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Sachs making the point that one guy… Trump, is deciding tariffs… and prone to changing his mind on a whim.
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Ohh… hello Lydia, would you like a nice coffee with some Stevia?
Goodnight from London