It was a net bullish month for US equities, SPX -86pts (1.4%) at 5954, with the Nasdaq comp’ -780pts (4.0%) at 18847. WTIC fell by -$2.77 (3.8%) to $69.76. Copper gained +27cents (6.3%) to $4.55. The USD weakened by -65bps to DXY 107.56. The US 10yr yield declined by -32bps to 4.22%.
SPX, monthly
The SPX saw a net February decline of -1.4%, but that was from a new hist’ high of 6147, and I have to see the month as net bullish. The monthly settlement was far above the key 10MA of 5728, as the mid/long term trend remains bullish. Monthly momentum weakened some more, if still on the high side.
As of March 3rd, my line in the sand – the 10MA, will be around 5800. Unless March settles under 5800, the primary trend (and trade) has to be seen as bullish.
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Nasdaq comp, monthly
Tech was rather powerfully lower, but managed another settlement above the key 10MA, as the mid/long term trend remains bullish. Monthly momentum weakened, but remains on the high side.
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WTIC, monthly
Oil swung from a high of $75.18 to settle at $69.76. Monthly momentum remains marginally negative. Broadly… its been over two years of chop. Bullish > $85, bearish <$65. I lean to upside into and across the spring.
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Copper, monthly
Copper climbed for a second month, printing a high of $4.84, if cooling back to $4.55. Momentum has turned positive. Big target is a break AND hold >psy’ $5.00. If yes, then a grander push to $7.00. Dr Copper merits your attention!
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USD, monthly
The king of FIAT land, saw a moderate net February decline. Monthly momentum remains moderately positive. Dollar bulls could argue its just consolidation/chop, before another push upward into/across the spring. Big target are the 114s.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
The US 10yr cooled for a second month, settling at 4.22%. Broadly though, its been chop since late 2022. I remain inclined to see an eventual break & hold above the giant psy’ 5.00% threshold. If yes, its open air to around 7.00%, last printed in July 1996.
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Miscell’ things
Lesson of the day… be healthy, and minimise contact with the healthcare sector.
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The weekly wrap on geo-politics.
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Zelensky Does not Want Peace He May Go to Prison for Treason
Armstrong is always recommended.
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*I’ve not watched, but Canada/US relations are clearly strained, with the re-election of Trump… aka Tariff-man.
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The Celente… as golden as ever.
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I’ve always liked Rogan, and I certainly see Elon as a net positive.
I suggest you get a coffee, and settle back.
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Dear Subscriber
Two days to rest and recover… won’t be enough. After thirteen years without a break, I’m a broken and shattered person. As they say… I guess I’ll rest when I’m dead.
As a distraction from the horror of my reality, I’ve sideline entertainment from Gold Rush, probably a movie, and more from Better Call Saul…
Two more episodes… and then I’m done with season one. Its a fine show, which is slowly growing on me. Again, more than anything, I’m just delighted to be back in the land of Breaking Bad. I’ve 55 episodes to go, which will likely keep me going into May.
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As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EST @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail ten of the world equity markets.
re: X. I will endeavour to cover as many of the end month settlements as I can. As ever, if there is something you’d like me to highlight, let me know.