US equities ended the week on a positive note, SPX +63pts (1.1)% to 5930, which made for a net weekly decline of -120pts (2.0%).
sp’weekly1b
Summary
SPX: a second consecutive net weekly decline, and whilst we settled well above the Friday low of 5832, it was still a pretty bearish week. Weekly momentum ticked lower, and should be sustainably negative next week, and into early January.
In terms of the ascending channel, we saw a pierce… but settled back within the channel. As of next Monday 5900 will be the lower channel support/threshold.
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Dear Subscriber (or guest)
Some perspective…
With 5.5 trading days left of 2024, the SPX is currently -101pts (1.7%) at 5830, having cooled from a new hist’ high of 6099. A monthly close under the key 10MA (5562) doesn’t look likely, but it does look viable in January.
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One interesting scenario from a regular poster…
… which would offer an effective test of the 200dma – around 5550, arguably BEFORE Trump takes command. The H/S is valid so long as nothing sustained >6K.
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The two big sell signals
First… interest rates/SPX
Special note: rate cut’3 hasn’t yet been included in this chart.
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Rate cuts are the ultimate equity sell signal… especially for the financials.
Second… the US 10yr/2yr spread
The US 10yr/2yr spread stands at +20bps.
The sustained uninversion (since Sept’) is a powerful equity sell signal.
It doesn’t matter how many times I highlight the above two charts… few care. Most are dismissive of such things, as they were in 2019, 2007, and 2000.
Ohh, but its different this time… right? Especially for Mr Saylor of MicroStrategy. Someone will write a good book on that guy.
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Miscell’ things
The Western Press & Their Propaganda Threatens Our Very Existence
A superb post, as the mainstream media hacks have become the enemy of humanity.
I just wonder if a number of regimes will soon require a ‘license’ for anyone to publish online. An annual ‘processing fee’ of $100,000 would be a simple means to prevent the independents – yours truly included, from continuing to publish.
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*I’ve not watched, but I’d imagine a few of you are aware of ‘Market Sniper’.
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Broad market chatter… as 2025 does appear to threaten market chaos.
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Yes… the debt ceiling is a scam/joke, as they will always raise it. The real concern should be how many more trillions will the Trump admin’ add.
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Always good… the weekly wrap on geo-politics.
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The Carlson and guest Furst on the Chicoms and Fauci. I struggle to believe we’re in the timeline where Fauci is prosecuted.
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The Celente, whom is sometimes even more pissed about Planet Krazy than yours truly.
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The weekend
Two days to rest/recover will not be enough. I’ve sideline entertainment from Gold Rush, Silo, and the season finale of Dune: Prophecy. The latter is a fine show, but six episode seasons are just too short.
As ever, feel free to message me via X, Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’ 12pm EST @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail six of the equity indexes (weekly candle charts).
re: X… I might cover the monthly charts… to provide a grander perspective. As ever, if there is something you’d like me to highlight, let me know.