It was a net bullish month for equities, SPX -150pts (2.5%) at 5881, with the Nasdaq comp’ +92pts (0.5%) at 19310. WTIC +$3.57 (5.2%) to $71.72. Copper declined by 11cents (2.7%) to $4.03. The USD strengthened by +247bps to DXY 108.30. The US 10yr yield climbed +40bps to 4.58%. The US 10yr/2yr spread gained +31bps to +32bps.
It was a bullish year for equities, SPX +1111pts (23.3%), with the Nasdaq comp’ +4299pts (28.6%). WTIC +7cents (0.1%). Copper +14cents (3.6%). The USD strengthened by 727bps. The US 10yr yield climbed +72bps. The US 10yr/2yr spread gained +71bps.
SPX, monthly
Whilst the SPX was net lower for the month, that was from a new hist’ high of 6099… which to me, makes it a net bullish month. Monthly momentum ticked lower a little, but remains on the very high side, RSI 69s, as cooling waves remain very muted.
The December settlement was far above the key 10MA (5558), as the m/t trend remains bullish. The 10MA will adjust/jump to around 5640 as of Thurs’ Jan’2nd.
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Nasdaq comp’, monthly
A bullish end to the year, printing a new hist’ high of 20204. Monthly momentum remains on the high side, with RSI 74s.
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WTIC, monthly
A net bullish month, but price action was broadly choppy across Q4. Monthly momentum ticked upward, but remains moderately negative. Bullish >78, bearish <64s.
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Copper, monthly
Copper fell for a third consecutive month, testing psy’ $4.00, and settling the year at $4.03. Monthly momentum has turned fractionally negative. Alarm bells with any sustained price action <$4.00.
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USD, monthly
The King of FIAT land climbed for a third consecutive month, settling in the DXY 108s, as the market appears to be expecting no rate cuts within Q1. Monthly momentum has turned positive, as the outlook is bullish. Next resistance are the 114s.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
The US 10yr yield climbed for the second month of three… despite a third rate cut. Monthly momentum ticked upward for a third month, and prone to turning positive in February.
A break >5.00% would merit alarm bells, and offer a basic run to 7.00%, as appears realistic by mid 2025. Lower bond prices won’t help the regional banks, but it would help raise net interest margins, especially for the giants of BAC and WFC.
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US 10yr/2yr spread
The US 10yr/2yr spread settled the year +32bps, having climbed from -39bps. Its an inherently bearish equity signal, but for now… very few care.
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Miscell’ things
… but if the US 10yr >5.00%, that’d offer 7.00%, and be net bullish equities… especially the financials.
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*I’ve not watched… but it might interest some of you.
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Dore on the Bannon. I want a America where citizens are paid decent money for productive jobs. His highness… Elon sure doesn’t support that, and instead wants migrants who will accept less. It IS that simple.
Ohh, and to be clear, I still see Elon as a net positive, but damn… he sure annoys me at times.
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The Celente made it across another year.
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Dear Subscriber
Suffice to say… 2024 was tough. Whilst the equity market was net higher, the society/species has never been more fractured. There is little reason to expect 2025 being any easier, as Planet Krazy continues down a dark path that I want little part of.
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Will Hank discover his brother in law was Heisenberg?
How can this possibly end well?
With 14 episodes to go… I should know in about two weeks time!
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Goodnight from London, and sincerely… Happy New Year.
yours… Philip
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A year end post will appear Wed’12pm EST @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail ten of the world equity markets.
*I’ll deal with the US indexes this weekend
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The next post on this page will be the pre-market brief, Thurs’, 8.30am, January 2nd, 2025