It was a bullish month for equities, SPX +326pts (5.7%) to 6032, with the Transports +1366pts (8.4%) to 17618. WTIC cooled by -$1.11 (1.6%) to $68.15. Copper -20cents (4.6%) to $4.14. The USD strengthened by +195bps to DXY 105.83. The US 10yr yield fell -11bps to 4.18%. The US 10yr/2yr spread fell -9bps to +2bps.
SPX, monthly
The 11th net monthly gain of 13, +326pts (5.7%), having broken a new hist’ high of 6044. Monthly momentum ticked back upward. RSI 74 is overbought, but with ZERO sign of a m/t ceiling/turn.
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Trans, monthly
The old leader saw a very powerful November gain… at least partly helped by relatively cheap energy prices.
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WTIC, monthly
Oil fell for the sixth month of eight. Monthly momentum ticked lower, and is on the moderately low side. The stronger dollar didn’t help.
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Copper, monthly
Copper fell for a second month, testing psy’ $4.00, if bouncing to settle at $4.14. Monthly momentum ticked lower, and will be prone to turning negative in December. The stronger dollar didn’t help.
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USD, monthly
The dollar climbed for a second month, and whilst it closed below the high of 108.07, the s/t outlook is bullish. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and should turn positive as of Dec’2nd. Having cleared the 107s, next resistance are the 114s.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
Bond yields cooled back after a very strong October. Monthly momentum ticked a little higher, if remaining negative. Broadly… its all chop. Bullish >5.00%, bearish <3.25%
*As things are, I expect rate cut’3 of -25bps, Dec’18th.
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The US 10yr/2yr spread
The US 10yr/2yr spread narrowed, settling at +2bps, but this was the third consecutive month above the key zero threshold. This remains an equity sell signal, almost as much as rate cut’1 was.
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Miscell’ things
*I’ve not watched yet, but this looks rather interesting.
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Not surprisingly… the Schiff favours gold over bitcoin.
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*I’ve not watched, but this has considerable chatter on crypto, which some of you will be interested in.
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A key concern should be a secondary inflationary wave… which might even exceed the prior cycle highs.
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C19
Dr Campbell… on the issue of DNA within the shots, some of which is being transcribed into cells throughout the body, and is associated with cancers.
Jeff with Erica, the latter having returned after a few months, due to health problems.
The podcast partly concerns a rise in bacterial infections, especially in those with compromised immune systems… not least those with VAIDS.
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‘Putin has been trying to sit on his hands. He knows that a direct confrontation will be devastating to much of the world. He is NOT a warmonger, but those behind him are just as insane as our Neocons’ – Armstrong.
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Highly recommended.
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The weekly geo-political wrap. HIGHLY recommended.
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… even more Celente!
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The weekend
Two days to rest and recover… won’t be enough. I’ve sideline entertainment from Gold Rush, Dune: Prophecy… but more important… Breaking Bad, as I’ve started season four…
… with 28 episodes left… I’m even more anxious. How could this possibly end well for any of them?
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As ever, feel free to message me via X, Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’ 12pm EST @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail ten of the world equity markets