It was a net bullish month for equities, SPX -57pts (1.0%) to 5705, with the Nasdaq comp’ -94pts (0.5%) to 18095. WTIC gained +$1.09 (1.6%) to $69.26. Copper cooled by -21cents (4.7%) to $4.34. The USD appreciated by +337bps to DXY 103.89. The US 10yr yield jumped +50bps to 4.29%. The US 10yr/2yr spread settled -3bps to 11bps.
SPX, monthly
Despite a net monthly decline, I have to see it as a net bullish month, having printed a new hist’ high of 5878. Momentum ticked back lower, if remaining on the very high side. Another monthly close above the key 10MA (5360), as the m/t trend remains bullish.
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Nasdaq comp’, monthly
As for the SPX, despite a moderate net monthly decline, with a new hist’ high of 18785, I have to see it as a net bullish month. Momentum weakened for a fourth consecutive month, if remaining on the high side. Another monthly close above the key 10MA (16935), as the m/t trend remains bullish.
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WTIC, monthly
Oil printed $78.26, if cooling to $66.33, and settling at $69.26. Monthly momentum continued to tick lower, and is on the moderately low side. Soft upside resistance are the $72s, and then 77/78s.
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Copper, monthly
Copper cooled by -21cents, but it remains s/t range bound. Bullish >$5.00, bearish <$4.00. Monthly momentum weakened a little, if remaining net positive.
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USD, monthly
The dollar saw the strongest month since (at least) Sept’2022. The psy’100 threshold is holding, as the dollar doomers have been quietening down their rhetoric.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
The first net monthly gain for the US 10yr yield since April. Monthly momentum ticked back upward, and might turn positive in January. Broadly… its ALL chop. Bullish >5.00%, bearish <3.25%.
*as things are, I expect the Fed to leaves rates u/c Nov’6th, but a -25bps cut looks realistic at the Dec’18th FOMC.
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US 10yr/2yr spread
The US 10yr/2yr spread settled positive for a second consecutive month. The uninversion merits as an equity sell signal, much as rate cut’1 did.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see Monthly jobs, construction, ISM manu’, vehicle sales
Earnings: $CVX $XOM $D $W $FUBO $CHTR $OXLC $BFLY
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Miscell’ things
Sachs remains a top tier guest… for geo-pol’ chatter.
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Two great Americans
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Into November
As I type its still two hours until midnight, but my thoughts are very much on November. What will it bring? The election is the obvious big issue, but we’ve Israel/Iran and NATO/Ukraine. Both are still escalating problems, with most of those in power having ZERO inclination of even trying for peace.
Ohh, and lets not forget North Korea…
*I’ve not watched it yet, but it looks to be an interesting video.
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My escape from reality remains…
From an exploding tortoise, but ending with something positively romantic.
Goodnight from London