10am update – good news is bad news

US equities open on a weak note, as the Mr Market is seeing a case of ‘good news is bad news’, on lowered hopes of a -50bps cut. VIX is battling to re-take the key 20 threshold. WTIC $66.86, with NG $2.29.  Gold $2535.

sp’60min

VIX’60min

Summary

Headline y/y: 2.5% vs 2.9% prior
Core y/y: 3.2% vs 3.2% prior

… certainly, its progress, even if disagree with the precise numbers.
Mr Market is somewhat annoyed though, as it reduces the probability of -50bps next week, not that was ever going to happen anyway.

We’re s/t cyclically high, as the setup favours the bears into tomorrow.
The 5350s still look realistic before the weekend.


notable stock: DJT

A new low for the year. Is this supposed to be reflective of Trump’s ‘performance’ last night? Regardless, the real concern should be Truth Social has close to zero revenue.

notable weakness: GME

Earnings were mixed…
EPS 4cents vs -1est. Rev’ y/y +31.4% to $798M vs 895est.
The market clearly annoyed with the revenue miss.

notable bank: BAC

Lower for the 4th day of five. Momentum has turned negative.
Yesterday’s bearish engulfing candle played out.
Alarm bells if <200dma.

notable miner: ALB

Lithium miners soaring on news that a major Chinese miner has suspended production (prices too low to mine?)