It was a mixed month for equities, SPX +126pts (2.3%) to 5648, with the Transports -40pts (0.25%) to 16043. WTIC fell by -$4.36 (5.6%) to $73.55. Copper +4 cents (0.8%) to $4.21. The USD weakened by -213bps to DXY 101.73. The US 10yr yield declined by -13bps to 3.91%.
SPX, monthly
The ninth monthly gain of ten, although it was a very mixed month, printing 5119, but recovering to settle +2.3% to 5648. Monthly momentum ticked up a little, and is on the VERY high side. I’d note another settlement above the key 10MA (5147), as the m/t trend remains unquestionably bullish.
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Trans, monthly
The ‘old leader’ – Transports, saw a low of 14812, but recovered to settle -0.25% to 16043. Monthly momentum ticked upward to settle fractionally positive. A settlement above the key 10MA (15617), as the short/mid term trend is bullish. I’d accept broader multi-year price action has been very choppy since late 2022.
The concern for the transports should be a slowing economy, and/or higher oil/fuel prices.
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WTIC, monthly
Oil declined for the fourth month of five, -5.6% to the mid $73s. Monthly momentum ticked lower, and remains marginally negative. Broader price action remains pretty tight since late 2023. The threat is geo-political, with basic spike target of psy’$100, and secondary of the $130s.
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Copper, monthly
Copper printed a low of $3.92, but recovered to settle at $4.21. M/t bearish from the May spike high of $5.20. Monthly momentum is still weakening, and might turn negative in October.
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USD, monthly
The dollar weakened for the third month of four, printing a low of 100.40, if settling around 101.73. Monthly momentum weakened… and remains negative. If the psy’ 100 threshold is lost… then its open air to 11/12% of downside to 89/88s
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US 10yr yield, monthly
The US 10yr yield fell for a fourth consecutive month, printing 3.67%, the lowest since June 2023. The market is arguably discounting around 150bps of rate cuts. Right now… I’d expect Sept’18th -25bps, Nov’6th -50bps, and Dec’18th -50bps. The latter two are predicated on net equity declines across Sept’-Oct’, and weakening econ-data.
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Miscell’ things
Special note… I endeavour to highlight what matters. I don’t expect you to agree with all of it, I’d almost be concerned if you did! What I do expect is that you question everything, whether its from CNN, FOX, Zerohedge.com or yours truly. If you can do that, you’ll be ahead of the curve.
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For some years I’ve been calling it ‘Planet Krazy’. The following two stories are good examples of just how insane the UK and mainland European populace are.
So… break into a country illegally. Commit one… or probably dozens/hundreds of crimes. Finally get caught, and eventually… if you’re really unlucky, you might get kicked out.
… but they gift you €1000. Seriously? If anything exemplifies the FAILED German people, its gifting the very people who have stolen, raped, and killed.
The latest from the UK…
I would like you to look into her eyes.
If you dig around, you can see video of the murderer, who stalked her at a bus stop, and killed her in the high street. Do you think it was some young white Christian guy? No. You know who it was.
Under the Herr Starmer regime, they have a dedicated unit to detect anyone talking about ‘migrants’. The police are to be seen for what they are… actively supportive of the invasion, the thieving, the raping, and the murder.
The corrupt courts are more focused on those speaking out against such migrant crimes, than those committing them.
Holly died horribly… seemingly killed by a piece of ghetto trash scrub. Maybe he was a migrant… I don’t know. Even if he wasn’t though, we can be sure he wasn’t ‘white Christian culture’.
The incident is indicative of a failed state, that has allowed its culture to be critically bleached out by those from North Africa and the middle east. From a pure mathematical perspective… its already too late, as the migrants are out-breeding the whites, typically by a factor of 5x. I only have to look out my window to see proof of that.
There is zero realistic hope, whether its for the UK, or anywhere within Europe. The choice to ‘tolerate’, to ‘do nothing’, was made over a decade ago.
Some rather ‘wild incidents’ are going to occur in the UK, and most of them will be on video. You don’t need a DeLorean to know what is coming.
I do wonder if there will be a revolution in the UK, but the level of apathy has never been higher. Perhaps even if the Parliament is burnt down, the (mostly white) original populace will do nothing.
As I’ll continue to publicly note, its a sick society… not worthy of survival.
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Seriously, how can any American think the UK is a safer place?
An increasing number have come to realise, no one should be voluntarily visiting the UK, or anywhere in mainland Europe. Its simply not safe here, never mind the corrupt ruling regimes.
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94 US Banks Burdened by Uninsured Deposits – Risk of Bank Runs
‘… that BNY Mellon and John Deere Financial have a 100% ratio of uninsured deposits, followed by State Street Bank (92.6%), Northern Trust (73.9%), Citibank (72.5%), HSBC Bank (69.8%), JP Morgan Chase (51.7%), and U.S. Bank (50.4%)’
This should be a m/t concern, as the system remains inherently flawed, built on crazy leverage. How many banks will be allowed to fail, before the CBDC system is rolled out to ‘save everyone’ ?
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Ms. Cambone with guest Mannarino. I’m not a particular fan of the latter, but his point on warning about the banks is valid.
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Carlson with Sachs.
At 2hrs 25mins… its very long, but I’m sure it will interest some of you.
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The Celente… as such a false flag or ‘event’ is another day closer.
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Dear Subscriber
Three days to rest and recover is 50% better than the usual. I’ve sideline entertainment from Bering Sea Gold, and probably a movie or two.
The scary thing is that Sunday is September, which means for the UK… summer effectively ends within a few weeks. I am dreading another winter of cold and grey horror.
I will hope life in your world is less difficult than mine.
Keep the good people close, and ghost the rest!
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail ten of the world equity markets.
X: I will endeavour to cover as many of the end month individual stock settlements as I can. As ever, if there is something you want me to highlight, let me know.
*the next post on this page will be the pre-market brief, 8.30am EDT, Tues’ Sept’3rd