It was a net bullish month for equities, SPX +61pts (1.1%) to 5522, with the Nasdaq comp’ -133pts (0.75%) to 17599. WTIC settled -$3.63 (4.4%) to $77.91. Copper fell -22 cents (4.9%) to $4.18. The USD weakened by -150bps to DXY 104.04. The US 10yr yield declined by -37bps to 4.03%.
SPX, monthly
The 8th monthly gain of 9, having broken a new hist’ high of 5669. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is on the very high side. Another settlement way above the key 10MA (5002), as the m/t trend is unquestionably bullish.
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Nasdaq comp’, monthly
A net monthly decline of -0.75%, but that is from a new hist’ high of 18671. Monthly momentum ticked back lower, but remains on the high side. A settlement above the key 10MA (15744) as the m/t trend is bullish.
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WTIC, monthly
It was a choppy July for oil, printing a low of $74.59, a high of $84.52, and settling at $77.91. Monthly momentum remains marginally negative, and prone to turning positive.
The key threat is geo-political. All things considered, it remains a wonder that oil isn’t much closer to psy’ $100. The latter appears an eventuality, with some – such as Celente, calling for $130, back to levels seen in early 2022.
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Copper, monthly
It was a turbulent month for copper, swinging from a high of $4.70 to $4.03, and settling at $4.18. The July candle leans net bearish for August, as Dr Copper is arguably warning of underlying economic weakness.
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USD, monthly
A net July decline for the king of FIAT land, but broader price action remains choppy since early 2023. Only bearish if <100. Bullish >108.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
The US 10yr yield declined for a third consecutive month. Zero sign of a s/t floor. Broader price action remains chop since late 2022. Mr Market has arguably priced in at least two rate cuts of -25bps, with the first due Sept’18th, and the second Dec’18th.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see Weekly jobs, PMI/ISM manu’, construction
Earnings: $MRNA $CNQ $CROX $MBLY $COP $W $SIRI $GOOS $ETN $AG $AMZN $AAPL $INTC $COIN $DKNG $ROKU $SQ $MARA $BKNG $MELI
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Miscell’ things
Indeed… they’re doing it again, and why would anyone expect them not to?
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The Judge with guest Sachs. Superb as ever.
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Chatter on the Fourth Turning, which I’d imagine most of you are well aware of. Considering the turn (around 2000/2001), the worse/floor/turn could be expected around Armstrong’s ECM date of 2032 or so. We’ve arguably another eight years until things start getting better… if from a far lower level (relative to the present) in terms of ‘societal/economic horror’.
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The Celente… who back in May 2022, called for Biden to step down and be replaced by Harris. Now he is calling for President Harris, barring a ‘wild card’. Its a scary thought.
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Technically struggling
So… last night I go to bed, I log into X via my laptop, and it flags me up as ‘suspicious activity’, locks me out, and then asks me to complete a 5 stage visual puzzle game. I wasn’t in the mood, and left it until the next day.
I wake up… power up my office desktop, and then complete the puzzle game. X tells me ‘you’re a human’, but then throws me a ‘technical error, come back later’.
Its 9.38pm BST, and I’m still locked out. Oh well, it means less typing, and frankly, that is a positive.
Just after 2pm EDT today… my own site goes offline. I’ve no idea why, but it came back after 90mins. Not great, but it could have been worse.
There are times when I really don’t like being dependent on so many aspects of tech. Just one minor ‘issue’ can cause all sorts of problems.
Anyway… July has settled, as August awaits. My concern remains a number of wild cards, and yes… I’m thinking of the west/Russia, and Israel/Iran.
Goodnight from London