It was a bullish month for equities, SPX +182pts (3.5%) to 5460, with the Nasdaq comp’ +997pts (6.0%) to 17732. WTIC gained +$4.55 (5.9%) to $81.54. Copper cooled by -21 cents (4.6%) to $4.39. The USD strengthened +122bps to DXY 105.85. The US 10yr yield declined by -10bps to 4.40%.
SPX, monthly
The 7th monthly gain of 8, having broken a new hist’ high of 5523. A monthly close far above the key 10MA (4878), as the mid/long term trend remains bullish. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is on the very high side.
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Nasdaq comp’, monthly
The 7th monthly gain of 8, having broken a new hist’ high of 18035. A monthly close far above the key 10MA (15306), as the mid/long term trend remains bullish. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is on the very high side.
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WTIC, monthly
Oil printed a low of $72.48, but swung powerfully upward to $82.72, and settling at $81.54. The June candle is bullish engulfing, with a rather distinct floor spike, and bodes pretty bullish for July. Monthly momentum will be prone to turning positive in July, or as of August 1st. Soft target are the $87s.
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Copper, monthly
The biggest monthly drop in copper since May 2023. May’s hyper spike candle played out. Commodity bulls need to see a monthly close >$5.00, to have renewed confidence of broader upside to the $7s.
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USD, monthly
The king of FIAT land strengthened for the fifth month of six. Momentum ticked upward, and is due to turn positive. Soft target are the 107s.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
Yields cooled back a little, if broadly stuck between 5.00% and 3.25%.
An eventual break >5.00% would merit alarm bells, not least for the regional banks, whose balance sheets would implode if bonds lost value.
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Miscell’ things
Ms. Cambone, with broad macro chatter.
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Geo-political chatter, as we are in the middle of some rather bigger shifts.
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The weekly wrap from Hunter. Again, I don’t necessarily agree with everything he says, but the issues raised are important.
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Hugely important. Were a broad scale conventional war to occur, it should be clear, China would send tens of millions to fight on the western front against Europe/North America.
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Indeed… Armstrong predicted last night, some months before it happened. He wasn’t the only one of course. There was Mr Furious… the Celente.
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Geo-political chatter
It was always ‘odd’ to have a debate this early ahead of the election. A few rightly foresaw what was to happen…
Biden was rolled out, and appeared a weak old man. A clear case of his own team throwing him under the bus, in order to force him to step down.
I watched a little of the post-debate show on CNN, and it was truly incredible to see them all immediately go with the narrative that Biden’s performance was a disaster, and that he needs to be replaced. Minor side note… when Biden goes, VP Ms. Harris will follow.
So… Biden to leave, but who to replace with? As an onlooker to US politics, Newsom would appear the logical choice, but I’m aware most outside of California don’t like him.
There has been chatter of Bezos of Amazon, Mark Cuban, or even Bloomberg, but no… none of those make any sense.
Then who? Ohh yeah… then it’ll be Hillary Clinton, which would make for the greatest electoral re-match of all time, with VP Michelle Obama… as even Armstrong noted a month or two ago.
Yet Trump faces sentencing July 11th. At minimum, he’ll be under house arrest. My guess…. the judge sentences him to a few decades in jail. Whether he is sent to jail that day… I don’t know, as the US system is rather different to the UK.
My bigger concern is an ‘event’. If you read around, you’ll be aware of the view that ‘they’ might orchestrate a false flag, and use it as the excuse to suspend elections. Armstrong has been warning of late Aug’>early Sept’, and I am concerned.
Anyway, it appears just a matter of when Biden announces he is quitting the race, although yes, he’d remain President until next January.
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The latest from the Celente.
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Dear Subscriber
Two days to rest and recover, and if that isn’t enough, next week offers 1.5 days off.
I’ve sideline entertainment via Gold Rush: Parker’s trail, Hoffman Family Gold, House of the Dragon, and maybe a movie (Furiosa ?).
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail ten of the world equity markets.
X: I’ll cover as many of the end month individual stock settlements across the weekend as I can manage. As ever, if there is anything you’d like me to highlight… let me know!