US equity indexes closed very mixed, SPX -43pts (0.9%) at 4967. Nasdaq comp’ -2.0%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +0.9%. R2K +0.1%.
sp’daily5
nasdaq comp’
r2k – via proxy IWM
transports
Summary
*whilst all the main indexes lean to a bounce, the concern should be geo-political. Further, I’d keep the daily indexes, in context to the more powerful weekly cycles, which are increasingly negative, and will be a restraint on ALL bounces into early May.
—
SPX:a sixth day lower, printing a new cycle low of 4953, settling -0.9% to 4967. Daily momentum is still ticking lower. RSI 31s… almost oversold.
NAS: a sixth day lower, settling -2.0% to 15282. Next support… 200dma 14500s, and I’d note key price threshold 14400s.
R2K: a new cycle low of 191.34, if recovering to settle +0.1% to 193.09. Momentum has started to tick back upward. On balance, I’d remain open to the 200dma in the 188s.
Trans: settling +0.9% to 15083. Momentum has started to tick back upward.
–
VIX’daily
VIX weekly
Volatility remained elevated, the VIX settling +3.9% to 18.71. A net gain for OPEX is very unusual. Daily momentum ticked lower, but remains on the high side.
Special note… today’s candle is black, from a high of 21.36, but that print was from within pre-market, and I’m dismissive of it. On balance, I’d NOT see today’s candle as black.
The VIX climbed for a third consecutive week, +8.1%. Weekly momentum ticked upward, and is showing no sign of a ceiling/turn.
More broadly… VIX monthly momentum has turned positive for the first time since Oct’2022. Upper bollinger offers the 27s. First things first though… a daily close >20.
–
a little more… by 6pm EDT