It was a bearish month for equities, SPX -218pts (4.2%) to 5035, with the Nasdaq comp’ -721pts (4.4%) to 15657. WTIC cooled by -$1.24 (1.5%) to $81.93. Copper gained +56 cents (13.9%) to $4.56. The USD strengthened by +181bps to DXY 106.30. The US 10yr yield increased by +48bps to 4.68%.
SPX, monthly
The first net monthly decline since last October. Monthly momentum is offering a provisional rollover. Another monthly settlement above the key 10MA (4714), as the m/t trend remains bullish.
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Nasdaq comp’, monthly
The first net monthly decline since last October. Monthly momentum is offering a provisional rollover. Another monthly settlement above the key 10MA (14698), as the m/t trend remains bullish.
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WTIC, monthly
WTIC printed $87.67, if cooling back to settle in the upper $81s, pressured by a weak equity market, and a stronger dollar. Monthly momentum still ticked upward, and will be prone to turning positive in the latter half of May.
Clearly, any escalation in the tinderbox of the middle east would likely see oil spike. Big target is the upper monthly bollinger… the $89s, with grander target of psy’ $100. The latter would still be far below the March 2022 $130s… when Russia was in the second month of its special military operation… or rather… war, with Ukraine.
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Copper, monthly
A new cycle high of $4.69, if reversing lower to settle at $4.56, on very high vol’ of 246M. A very powerful net monthly gain, as psy’ $5.00 looks probable in May. The latter would argue against any sustained equity downside.
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USD, monthly
The King of FIAT land climbed for a fourth consecutive month, printing the 106s. Monthly momentum continued to tick upward, and is due to turn positive in May or June. Next resistance are the Oct’2023 107s, and then the 110s.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
Yields climbed for the third month of four. Monthly momentum ticked back upward, and might turn positive in May. Natural target is the Oct’ high of psy’ 5.0%. A few daily closes >5.00% would merit alarm bells, and open the door to a run to next multi-decade resistance of 7.00%. The latter appears an eventuality, as even a few mainstream hacks are starting to expect rates of 6 to 7% in 2025.
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Looking ahead
Wednesday will see ADP jobs, construction, ISM manu’, JOLTS, EIA Pet’
Earnings: GOLD, PFE, CVS, MA, NCLH, WING, KHC, EL, MAR, ARCC, QCOM, DVN, PAYC, CVNA, ACLS, FSLY, ETSY, CDE, NOVA, ALB
Event: 2pm FOMC announcement. 2.30pm Press conf’. No change in rates/policy can be expected
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Final note
Broad chatter from Armstrong, including the ‘Exit tax’, as states/countries want to pressure people to stay. The smarter ones have long since moved to better places.
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Wondering
Yours truly merely wonders if I’ll get an acceptable exit early Wednesday in Barrick Gold. After Tuesday’s net decline of -3.9% to $16.64, the $18s are out of range. The mid $17s would be acceptable… ahead of the Fed.
I’m about near the end though, with too many problems, none of which look realistically able to be resolved… not least escaping a social trash ghetto.
In some ways… I will hope Barrick Gold implodes -10% on a ‘sell the news’ event. At least I can then give up.
Goodnight from London