It was a bullish month for equities, SPX +158pts (3.1%) to 5254, with the Transports +370pts (2.3%) to 16211. WTIC climbed +$4.91 (6.3%) to $83.17. Copper +16cents (4.2%) to $4.01. The USD strengthened by +43bps to DXY 104.53. The US 10yr yield cooled by -5bps to 4.20%.
SPX, monthly
A fifth consecutive monthly gain, having printed a new hist’ high of 5264. Monthly momentum is increasingly positive, with zero sign of a ceiling/turn. Another close above the key monthly 10mA (4656), which will adjust/jump to the 4700s as of next Monday, April 1st.
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Trans, monthly
The fourth net monthly gain of five. Momentum ticked upward, and is marginally positive. Big resistance is the July high of 16717, which won’t be easy to clear if oil keeps climbing.
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WTIC, monthly
A third month higher for oil. Momentum will be prone to turning positive in April. Natural target is the upper bollinger… around psy’ $90. Above that… its empty air to giant psy’$100, and then the March 2022 Ukraine/Russia spike high of $130.50.
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Copper, monthly
Copper climbed for the fourth month of five. Momentum has turned fractionally positive. Whilst the March candle is spiky from around psy’ $4.00, I lean bullish copper for April, and would note the upper bollinger at $4.25.
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USD, monthly
The king of FIAT land climbed for a third month, with a second monthly close above the key 10MA. Momentum continues to slowly swing back toward the dollar bulls, and might turn positive in June.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
The US 10yr yield was a touch lower for March. Monthly momentum is still increasingly negative. Bond bulls/yield bears could argue structure is a multi-month bear flag, with a natural target of 3.25%. I’d keep that target on ice… unless we break <4.00%.
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Miscell’ things…
… with Gold having printed a new hist’ high of $2246.80. The $2300s are clearly viable next week.
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The Celente… as furious as ever.
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Holding light
In early morning it wasn’t looking so great, but I did manage to offload both RUM (stock) and SLV CALLS on morning mini ramps. That made for four green exits this week, and I’m distinctly pleased with that. I could have had five, but I want to hold and exit GOLD in the $17s. I also hold NEM.
As for next week, I should look to pick up some GLD CALLS, and maybe USO CALLS.
I can’t stomach being short an index, nor VIX-long, but I’d be pretty comfortable long GOLD and Oil, as I was in early 2022, before the Russians made their move.
Even if nothing ‘krazy’ happens in April, the technical setup for Gold and Oil is distinctly bullish. Friday was itself very supportive of that outlook.
… and seriously, I am concerned that NATO/EU are seeking a direct war with Russia. The scariest news headline in April would be ‘Country *** to deploy ground troops to defend Ukraine’.
If I’m right, the red/green flashing boxes will become the least of my concerns this spring/summer.
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Dear Subscriber
Three days is 50% better than two! I need considerable rest, and maybe a movie or two. Still though, I need to make a start on finalising my taxes/accounts for 2023/24. Joy.
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a good Easter, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post might appear Friday 12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail ten of the world equity markets.
re: X… I should take it light, but I’ve the end month individual stock settlements to cover. As ever… if there is something you’d like me to highlight… let me know.
*the next post on this page will be the pre-market brief, due 8.30am EDT, Monday, April 1st… Q2 !