Good morning. US equity futures are significantly higher, SPX +65pts, we’re set to open at 5046. USD is -0.3% at DXY 103.61. The precious metals are leaning upward, Gold +$4, with Silver +0.7%. WTIC is -0.4% in the $77s.
sp’60min
Summary
Wednesday saw considerable chop, if mostly weak leaning. The closing hour saw a distinct upside reversal, settling (surprisingly) positive… if only fractionally.
Overnight futures have been distinctly positive, helped by other world markets, but it would seem… especially Nvidia.
S/t momentum will turn positive at the open. The SPX will be prone to printing a new hist’ high (>5048), making it a day and week for the bulls. A push into the 5100s is clearly viable before end month.
Call it AI hysteria, call it a ‘blow-off top’, call it whatever you like, but such a new hist’ high, will keep things at effectively 100% bullish, with spring due in just four weeks.
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Early movers
AAPL +0.5%, distinctly laggy to the main market.
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AG +1.6%, EPS **
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AMD +5.3%, helped by Nvidia
AMZN +2.0%
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APA -1.8%, earnings (Wed’ AH), EPS $1.15 vs 1.33est. Rev’ y/y -12.3% to $2.17bn vs 2.07est.
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ARM +6.1%
BROS +6.7%, post earnings jump
CCL +5.2%, helped by RCL
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COIN +3.0%
Bitcoin is -0.7% at $51488. Every day is can hold >50K, increases the probability it will make a broader push to next resistance of $61K.
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CRWD +4.6%… as everything is fine again, with most already forgetting about Palo Alto.
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ETSY -7.9%, earnings (Wed’ AH), EPS 62cents vs 78est. Rev’ $842M vs 827est. Warns Q1 sales will be weak.
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ENVX +3.0%
FCX +0.3%, with copper +1cent to $3.88
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FVRR -2.7%, EPS 56cents vs 48est. Rev’ y/y +10.1% to $91.5M vs 92.6est. Weak guidance.
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GOLD +0.3%
INTC +2.5%
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LCID -8.4%, EPS -29cents vs -30est. Rev’ y/y -39% to $157M vs 180est. Lucid make 2391 vehicles in Q4, 8428 full year. Guides for 9K vehicles (full year)
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LNG -1.2%, EPS $5.76 vs 2.69est. Rev’ y/y -46.9% to $4.8bn vs 4.4est. Lower Natgas prices sure didn’t help.
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META +2.4%
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MOS +3.7%, earnings (Wed’ AH), EPS 71cents vs 87est. Rev’ y/y -29.7% to $3.15bn vs 3.09est.
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MRVL +6.0%
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MRNA +4.8%, EPS 55cents vs -93est. Rev’ y/y -44.9% to $2.8bn vs 2.5est. Maintains guidance. Moderna expects regulators to soon authorise the RSV shot.
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MSFT +1.7%
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MU +2.9%, all those NVDA and AMD graphics cards require a lot of memory chips
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NEM +0.1%, EPS 50cents vs 44est. Rev’ y/y +23.7% to $4.0bn vs 3.4est. Newmont is looking to sell six ‘non-core projects’.
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NVAX +8.0%, Novavax reaches a settlement with Gavi
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NVDA +13.2%… printing $775, a new hist’ high, with the market cap’ nearing $2trn.
Earnings (Wed’ AH): EPS $5.16 vs 4.59est. Rev’ y/y +265% to $22.1bn vs 20.1est. Positive guidance
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PLTR +5.8%
RCL +5.7%, updated guidance
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RIVN -15.7%, earnings (Wed’ AH), EPS -$1.36 vs -1.35est. Rev’ y/y +98% to $1.3bn inline. Rivian guides for 57K vehicles for the year, touting a Q4 2024 ‘modest gross profit’. Emphasis on the GROSS… not net, as I struggle to see Rivian surviving.
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SMCI +11.4%, renewed hysteria
SQ +2.8%, earnings due in AH
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TLT +0.3%, as yields cool
TSLA +0.5%
TSM +3.6%
UAL +0.7%
UBER +2.5%
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VIX -7.4% at 14.21
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W +6.2%, EPS -11cents vs -15est. Rev’ y/y +0.4% to $3.1bn inline. I struggle to see a l/t future for Wayfair.
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WBD +1.0%, earnings due early Friday
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Overnight markets
Asian and European markets all pushing upward…
Japan: +2.2% to 39038, a new hist’ high, finally clearing the 1990 high of 38915
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China: +1.3% to 2988
Germany: currently +1.4% at 17353
UK: currently +0.2% at 7679
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Have a good Thursday