Month: February 2024

Bits and pieces to wrap up February

It was a bullish month for equities, SPX +250pts (5.2%) to 5096, with the Transports +325pts (2.1%) to 15841. WTIC +$2.41 (3.2%) to $78.26. Copper cooled by -6cents (1.5%) to $3.85. The USD strengthened by +104bps to DXY 104.13. The US 10yr yield climbed +26bps to 4.25%.

SPX, monthly


A fourth consecutive net monthly gain, having broken a new hist’ high of 5111. Monthly momentum somewhat accelerated upward, and is on the high side. Another close above the key 10MA (4548), as the m/t trend is unquestionably bullish.

The 5200s look realistic within March, the 5300s in April, and my wave extrapolation of the 5400s in May. The latter assumes NO geo-political ‘wild cards’, and April does threaten something.
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Trans, monthly


The third monthly gain of four. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is marginally positive. A fourth consecutive monthly settlement above the key 10MA, as the trend is m/t bullish, if distinctly less so than other indexes. Next upside target are the 16700s, as look viable in March.

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WTIC, monthly


Oil climbed for a second month, settling just above resistance of the $78s, and the key 10ma ($77.77). Next resistance… 83/84s, I’d note the upper bollinger in the $94s, with major resistance of giant psy’ $100. Monthly momentum subtly ticked upward, and might turn positive in April.
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Copper, monthly


Whilst copper saw a net monthly decline, it was only a drop of 6cents, and 20cents above the intra month low of $3.65. Monthly momentum remains fractionally negative, and prone to turning positive in March. I’d accept a break >psy’ $4.00 will not be easy.
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USD, monthly


The king of FIAT land climbed for a second month, settling in the 104s… notably above the key 10MA. Monthly momentum remains moderately negative, and on balance, might turn positive in May.

Dollar doomers – not least the Schiff, should remain mute unless <100. Even if that happened, I can’t take any such talk seriously unless <88, last printed in April 2018.

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US 10yr yield, monthly


The US 10yr settled February at 4.25%. Bond bears could argue the February candle is bullish engulfing, whilst the bulls could could argue multi-week structure is a bear flag.

We’re at a time AND price where either yields broadly drop from here onward, or the threat will be of a run back toward 5.00%. The latter would be a major problem for equities, gold, almost everything.

My guess is that yields will decline into/across the spring. Big target would be 3.25%, where the lower monthly bollinger will be in May/June.

To be clear, I remain of the view that we’ll see an eventual secondary wave in inflation, something that Schiff, Denniger, and a number of others are expecting. Clearly though, we could be talking about 2025 or 26′, rather than anything this side of the election.

Ohh yeah, the election… but hey… lets not get into that today.

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Looking ahead

Friday has no econ-data on the schedule.

Earnings: PLUG, FUBO, TDW, RPID, RDNT, AY, INTT, AMRX

Event: It will be the start of March, and typically, it will favour the bulls, as new institutional money is spent.
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*I’ve not watched this yet, but the issue of pseudo-prosperity is pretty important. For most… whilst the equity market continues to break new hist’ highs… the average person has an increasingly negative net worth with each month.
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I’ve no doubt this annoyed a few…

There is talk of a ceasefire, but does this sound like everything will somehow magically resolve itself?  Having bombed to dust much of the northern sector of Gaza, what is there to return to?

The concern should be of an escalation. Does anyone really think the neighbouring arab nations aren’t secretly considering an attack?  The eventual implications for oil should be clear, and I’d be concerned about the first half of April.

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I watched ‘Poor things’ last night. Well, actually, I watched 5mins on Tuesday night, and then turned it off. I tried again on Wed’, skipping over a few medical scenes. Its one bizarre movie… not for most.

So I’m back on Twitter… but the dozens, hundreds of noteworthy news stories are all horrible. As much as February was worse than January, March will be worse than February.

I guess I should ease off on my whining. All my Feb’ bills were paid. My bills for March have already been allocated. I sleep pretty good… but its not enough, not least as I’m too tired for anything else.

The lack of sun isn’t helping. March will be brighter, yes?

Goodnight from a cold, dark, and rainy London