Good morning. US equity futures are leaning weak (ahead of the jobs data), SPX -8pts, we’re set to open at 4680. USD is +0.3% at DXY 102.43. The precious metals are a little weak, Gold -$4 (printing $2043), with Silver -0.1%. WTIC is +0.6% in the $72s.
sp’60min
Summary
Yesterday saw considerable chop, if ending on a somewhat weak note. S/t momentum settled marginally negative.
Overnight futures have been leaning on the weaker side, especially pressured by European markets. We’re set to open -5/10pts, but that could easily change with the monthly jobs data, due 8.30am.
Consensus: 164K vs 199k prior.
Headline jobless rate: 3.8% vs 3.7% prior.
It is arguable that the market will rally on ‘Goldilocks/inline’, or the ‘bad news is good news’ notion. The equity bears should be seeking a strong number >250k.
From a pure cyclical perspective, the s/t cyclical setup favours the bulls, whilst the daily/weekly favours the bears.
Yes, I’m aware of this…
Ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs report …#economy #markets #bonds #jobs #econtwitter @markets pic.twitter.com/LwIcxtRYp7
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) January 4, 2024
… but as ever, it could just be a hedge against a heavy-long stock position.
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Early movers
AAPL -0.6%, Foxconn Dec’ rev’ y/y -26.9%
AFRM -2.1%
AMD -0.6%
BABA -1.3%
CCL +0.9%
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COIN -1.7%
Bitcoin is -0.3% at $44073. Daily momentum prone to turning positive this weekend.
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COST +1.0%, Jefferies, 725>755, Oppenheimer, 675>695
FCX -1.4%, with copper -2cents to $3.82
GOLD -0.5%
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INTC -1.2%
MARA -1.5%
NEM -0.9%
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NFLX +0.6%, WSJ story, Netflix to try to make money via video games, which would be a very cheap type of shows.
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OXY +0.2%
PLTR -3.7%, Jefferies, hold>underperform, 18>13
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PTON +4.1%, highly speculative chatter Apple might buy it
PYPL -1.0%
SLB +0.3%
SOFI -1.1%
TSLA -0.8%
UNG -2.8%, with Natgas $2.77
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VIX +2% in the mid 14s
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XOM +0.3%
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Overnight markets
Asian markets were mixed, whilst European markets are broadly lower…
Japan: +0.3% to 33377
China: -0.8% to 2929
Germany: currently -0.9% to 16473
UK: currently -0.9% to 7650
Here in the failed state of the UK…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67883985
Sainsbury – a mid tier grocer, raising wages by 9% for those in London to £13.15 ($16.64), which will feed through into higher food prices.
Ohh, and whilst its mostly stopped raining…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-67890436
For some, a very difficult weekend is ahead.
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Special note…
Today will be an open day, with my posts available to all. Its the best (and free) advertising I can get.
Have a good Friday