It was a net bullish month for equities, SPX +75pts (1.6%) to 4845, with the Transports -283pts (2.4%) to 15515. WTIC gained +$4.20 (5.9%) to $75.85. Copper +2cents (0.4%) to $3.91. The USD strengthened by +253bps to DXY 103.56. The US 10yr yield gained +11bps to 3.99%.
SPX, monthly
A third consecutive net monthly gain, having printed a new hist’ high of 4931. Monthly momentum is increasingly positive, with ZERO sign of a m/t top. We had another close above the key monthly 10MA (4456) as the m/t trend is bullish, with no reason not to expect giant psy’ 5K to be challenged.
Trans, monthly
A net January decline of -2.4%, but still holding above the key 10MA, as the m/t trend remains bullish. Monthly momentum ticked a little higher, and is fractionally positive.
Equity bears could argue the ‘old leader’ is warning that not everything is as bullish as many want to believe. Any upside in oil/fuel costs into the spring/summer sure wouldn’t help.
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WTIC, monthly
Oil printed $79.29, if cooling back to settle in the upper $75s. Monthly momentum remains moderately negative. The January settlement was below the 10MA, as the m/t trend remains bearish. Still though, I have to expect a decisive break AND hold >$78, which would offer the $85s. The obvious upside threat of a hyper spike would be geo-political.
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Copper, monthly
A third month higher, if only by two cents. Monthly momentum continued to tick upward, and will be prone to turning positive in February. Copper/metal/mining bulls should be seeking a decisive break >$4.00, with next soft resistance of the Jan’2023 high of $4.36.
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USD, monthly
The king of FIAT land climbed very significantly in January, helped by the notion there won’t be any rate cuts until at least May. Monthly momentum remains on the moderately negative side, as the cyclical setup favours the bulls into the spring.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
The US 10yr printed an intra month high of 4.198%, but settled the month just below psy’4.00%. I’d remain open to resumed downside to around 3.25%. Ideally, that’d make for a higher low, with a subsequent higher high >5.0% later this year/early 2025.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see Weekly jobs, Productivity, PMI/ISM manu’
Earnings: MO, RCL, PTON, EPD, MRK, SIRI, CAH, HON, TSCO, SWK, AAPL, AMZN, META, TEAM, X, CLX, SKX, DECK, ORC, MCHP
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Final note
Ms. Cambone with guest Ms. Prins.
Some chatter on five of the wild cards.
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Every week… the Celente is a little more furious.
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Interesting chatter from Ms. Zang and Mr Griffin.
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“… and so it begins”…
Ohh the humanity, as this morning I finally tested a Twitter Space. The cable configurations are still annoying (I won’t use a phone mic, instead I plug in a Rode receiver, which links to a Lavalier mic).
Its clearly going to take some months to figure out what I want to do, and to build even a micro audience.
I can do more work… if via speaking, rather than typing. The latter is becoming an increasing strain, and its kinda scary to wonder if I’ll be in any fit state to type as much as I currently do… given a few more years.
I should be able to video stream… which is usually preferable, as I can then share charts, and who doesn’t like charts?
Goodnight from London