It was a day of considerable minor chop, if with the SPX breaking a new cycle high of 4785, and settling +0.1% to 4781. Meanwhile, WTIC settled -$1.46 (1.9%) at $74.11.
sp’weekly1d
WTIC daily
Summary
SPX: with two days left of this short week, we’re net higher for a ninth consecutive week. Price action is distinctly tight range, as many aren’t even around. There is little reason to expect any different across Thurs’/Fri’, as the seasonal setup favours the bulls into early January.
The following was kindly forwarded to me…
To me, most notable was the last one… SPX 5400, from Yardeni.
Weekly chart 1d – with a simple extrapolation, offers 5412 by the summer.
5412 – 4781 = 631pts, which is some 13.2% to the upside.
Frankly, 13.2% looks pretty easy, and realistic as early as March/April.
I have zero interest in being short, and choose to use Gold/miners as a sanctuary, whilst the main market is m/t bullish. I do understand those who venture into other areas.
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WTIC: oil cooled back, with today’s performance worse, relative to the weaker dollar. The recent $67s look very secure. Basic upside target are the 200/50dma $77s.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see Weekly jobs, intl’ trade, retail invent’, wholesale invent’, pending home sales.
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Final note
This is from a few days ago, but I’ve finally remembered to post it here.
Mr Long, with some interesting ideas and scenarios.
If anything, it should be clear, 2024 will be a real mess of a year, prone to seeing something ‘bad’ before the election. I remain skeptical there will even be an election.
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The scariest headline (at least to me) in 2024 would be ‘Putin is no longer President of Russia’.
If you don’t like the guy… fine, it doesn’t matter whether you do or not.
What does matter is that Putin has been a restraint on the ‘Lets nuke the west’ elements within the Russian political class.
Armstrong’s ECM cycle theory is not to be dismissed lightly, and I would be extremely mindful of May 7th 2024. Its something to be pinned to the desk.
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With the news cycle so short, many aren’t even thinking of the ongoing destruction.
Background chatter is that Gaza will be cleared, with the bulk (2.3M or so) exiled into the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt. Further, there is speculative chatter of a canal – through Gaza, to rival the Suez. The implications would be profound for world trade.
As things are, there is zero reason to expect the ‘exile’ not to happen, as the current world order appears broadly fine with ethnic cleansing, for what is an apartheid state.
These are crazy times, but 2024 will be more so.
Goodnight from London