It was a bullish month for equities, SPX +202pts (4.4%) to 4479, with the Transports +880pts (5.9%) to 15898. WTIC fell by -$4.31 (5.7%) to $71.65. Copper climbed +4cents (1.0%) to $3.89. The USD weakened by -240bps to DXY 101.03. The US 10yr yield fell by -49bps to 3.88%.
SPX, monthly
The SPX climbed for a second month, settling powerfully higher, with a new cycle high of 4793, the highest since Jan’2022. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is on the moderately high side. A decisive close above the key 10MA (4382), as the m/t trend is bullish. A net yearly gain of +24.2%.
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Trans, monthly
The ‘old leader’ – Transports, climbed for a second month, settling very powerfully higher. Monthly ticked upward, settling fractionally positive, with a close back above the key 10MA. A net yearly gain of +18.7%.
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WTIC, monthly
Oil fell for a third consecutive month, having fallen from the Sept’ $95s to the Dec’ $67s. Monthly momentum ticked lower for a second month, and is on the moderately negative side.
The net yearly decline of -10.7% is surprising, not least considering the ongoing conflict between Ukraine/Russia, and the broadening tensions within the middle east. Macro-bears could argue the downside in oil across Q4 is an early warning of underlying weakening global growth.
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Copper, monthly
Copper climbed for a second month, printing $3.97, if cooling back to $3.89. Momentum will be prone to turning positive in early 2024. A net yearly gain of +2.1%.
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USD, monthly
A second consecutive net monthly decline, settling in the DXY 101s. A narrow range year of 99-107. Any monthly close <98.00 would be decisive and threaten the 88s, last printed in April 2018. A net yearly decline of -2.2%.
Whilst there is considerable ‘dollar doom’ chatter, I’m still dismissive of it. Unless the BRICS or some other global group, come up with a gold/commodity backed currency, there is no reason not to expect the USD to remain king of FIAT land into the 2030s.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
Bond yields declined for a second month, if precisely flat for the year. Monthly momentum has turned negative for the first time since Nov’2020. Next support is around 3.25%, as looks possible within March/April, when the Fed appear inclined for rate cut’1.
A number out there are looking for something analogous to the 1970s, where the Fed cut rates, only to have to raise them again, due to a secondary (and more powerful) inflationary wave. Right now, I’m inclined to agree.
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Miscell’ things
Special note to the ‘new people’…
I don’t expect you to agree with everything I post, especially in after hours. I’ve never been one to shy away from discussing contentious issues. What I do expect is that you question everything, whether its from CNN, FOX, Zerohedge.com or yours truly. If you can do that, you’ll be ahead of the curve.
Highly recommended. I’m with this guy, as I suspect something ‘wild’ ahead of the election, which might be the excuse to cancel it. First, get a coffee or something stronger.
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Chatter from Hunter, with a few ideas for 2024.
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The Celente, ending the year even more furious than last year.
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Dear Subscriber
… and that was 2023. I’m so tired, I’ve not even done the end year posts, or put together any kind of outlook yet. Every year… I’m more tired, and its a little more scary.
I survived another year, but its not a life that merits living. The society I live within is worse with each day. Just today one branch of the UK police were arguing that ‘its racist to say you’re English’. On any basis, its a society that is not worthy of survival, as the illegals continue to invade.
Call it political incompetence, woke, collective insanity, call it whatever you want, but why would anyone expect 2024 not to be even worse, on a local, national, and planetary level?
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I should perhaps quit my whining, as my annual outgoings are a mere $15000 or so, I’m debt free, and I’m not beholden to anyone. Maybe 2024 will be better, but my experience is that hope has usually just been a cruel tease.
I will hold genuine hope for YOU though.
I will hope you keep the good people close, and the maniacs far away.
I will hope most of you are outside of the cities, are debt free (or at least getting there), and living the life you want.
We’ve three days to rest and recover. I’ve sideline entertainment via Monarch, and maybe a re-watch of Rebel Moon.
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, I wish you a happy new year.
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail ten of the world equity markets.
I will endeavour to cover the end month/year individual stock settlements across the long weekend. As ever, if there is anything you want me to highlight, let me know.
The next post on this page will be the pre-market brief, 8.30am ET, Tuesday, January 2nd 2024.