It was a very bullish month for equities, SPX +374pts (8.9%) to 4567, with the Nasdaq comp’ +1374pts (10.7%) to 14226. WTIC fell -$5.06 (6.2%) to $75.96. Copper +20cents (5.5%) to $3.85. The USD weakened by -299bps to DXY 103.51. The US 10yr yield declined by -51bps to 4.37%.
SPX, monthly
It looks like November was the strongest month since April 2020. Monthly momentum ticked upward, settling marginally positive. A decisive close back above the key 10ma (4302), as the m/t trend has turned back to bullish.
Whilst some s/t cooling to 4458/11 looks probable, a secondary up wave into January 2024 also appears due, offering a break above the July high of 4607. Upper monthly bollinger is currently offering the 4640s.
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Nasdaq comp’, monthly
A very powerful net monthly gain, nearing the July high of 14446. Monthly momentum ticked back upward, and is on the moderately positive side. A decisive settlement above the key 10MA, as the m/t trend is back to bullish.
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WTIC, monthly
A second monthly decline, with oil pressured by background concerns about US/global growth. Thursday’s news that OPEC have no interest in any further supply cuts didn’t help, with oil settling at $75.96, which was decisively below the 10MA, with the m/t trend back to bearish.
*I still see short oil and the related energy stocks as the most ludicrous trade.
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Copper, monthly
A lot of $3.58, but recovering upward to settle November at $3.85… right on the key 10MA. The concern should be global growth. I see Dr Copper as warning of ‘something’, unless it can re-take psy’ $4.00
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USD, monthly
The king of FIAT land saw a rather powerful net monthly decline of around -3.0% to the DXY 103s. Momentum ticked back lower, settling moderately negative. Still, it doesn’t merit any hysteria. Massive support around 100. Even if that is lost… ‘dollar collapse’ chatter isn’t merited, with next support of the 88s.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
November saw yields cool back, the first monthly decline since April. Monthly momentum ticked back lower, and threatens to turn negative in January. I still struggle to see 4.99% as a key high, but if it is… then the bond bulls could be seeking 3.00% in 2024. Gundlach touted 200bps of cuts in 2024, and maybe he will be right.
The concern should be a secondary wave in inflation, but perhaps that doesn’t occur until 2025 ? In any case, yields could be expected to break a lower low in December.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see ISM manu’, construction,
Earnings: BMO
Event: Powell, due 11am and 2pm
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Miscell’ things
I’d imagine a few of you haven’t yet watched the full interview, and do I recommend you get a coffee…
Watch my conversation with @ElonMusk: https://t.co/YedkELVhFn
— Andrew Ross Sorkin (@andrewrsorkin) November 29, 2023
Elon is clearly under pressure, and when I see him cursing out others, its rather unsettling. I’d imagine CEO Ms. Vaxarino was horrified, but I don’t really care about what she thinks.
I’d guess some of the big name advertisers will return, but not all, as ‘they’ want to break Elon. If I can suggest anything, if you want to fight ‘them’, you can boycott their products/services, and second… you can subscribe to X.
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I think its an astounding piece of work. I can relate to the notion of breaking and burying X, as I very much have a love/hate relationship with it.
Goodnight from London