It was a typically red Thursday in equity land, the SPX printing 4127, and settling -1.2% to 4137. Meanwhile, WTIC settled -$2.18 (2.5%) to $83.21.
sp’weekly1b
WTIC daily
Summary
SPX: as things are, we’re net lower for the week by -86pts (2.1%). I’d note the upper spike on the weekly candle, indicative of another failed rally. Weekly momentum is increasingly negative, and a powerful restraint on ALL bounces.
WTIC: oil reversed all of the Wednesday gains. Today’s candle is bearish engulfing, and leans s/t bearish.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see Pers’ income/spending, PCE, consumer sent’.
Earnings: XOM, CVX, PSX, ABBV, CHTR, AN, CL, NWL TROW
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Final note
Today was day’8 of a viable 10-11 day major wave lower.
Officially, the Puetz window will close next Tuesday/Halloween.
If this is a mini-crash playing out… we should see 4050/4000 on Friday.
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‘fractal guy’ is seeking capitulation on Thurs’ Nov’2nd, just after the Fed.
> http://www.economicfractalist.com/blog/
Whilst that might be true, it could just be a marginal lower low, rather than the ‘strongest downside power’, which I’d guess will be next Monday or Tuesday.
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A subscriber kindly reminded me of the keystone guy…
https://thekeystonespeculator.blogspot.com/2023/10/spx-s-500-60-minute-chart-with-200-ema.html?m=1
In retrospect… its more interesting, especially the back-test to around 4257. In the event… we printed 4259, before resuming lower.
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Tough day
For yours truly… it was a VERY tough day. I was not willing to chase lower at the open, as the s/t cyclical setup did not support it. Instead… I watched the market unravel to 4127… with a bounce to 4170.
Yours truly went short from 4157, 56′, and 56′.
I’m pleased I held to my rules, and I’m finding it useful to buy in multiple blocks. Three seems to be the ideal number.
So… now the issue is… how does Friday settle?
Personally, I’d be fine with anything <4100 and more so… VIX >23.
The latter would especially threaten a ‘problematic’ Monday.
Goodnight from London