It was a rough Tuesday in equity land, the SPX breaking a new cycle low of 4216, and settling -1.4% to 4229. Meanwhile, WTIC settled +41cents (0.5%) to $89.23.
sp’weekly1b
WTIC daily
Summary
SPX: We’re lower for the 8th week of 10. Momentum is increasingly negative, and a restraint on ALL bounces. I’d note the lower weekly bollinger at 4195… just below the daily 200MA.
WTIC: a mixed day for oil, printing $87.76, but swinging upward to the $90s, which was very impressive considering the weak equity market, and the stronger dollar.
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Looking ahead
Wednesday will see ADP jobs, factory orders, ISM serv’, EIA Pet’
Earnings: TLRY, AYI, ANGO
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Final note
Ep. 27 Donald Trump appeared in court today, but it wasn’t a legal proceeding. It was a grotesque parody of the system our ancestors created. Victor Davis Hanson explains. pic.twitter.com/KhTHateWCZ
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) October 2, 2023
Its fine if you’re no fan of Tucker, but I do see him as a net positive.
The above is highly recommended… if a real downer.
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Could 10-year Treasury rates hit 13%?@RickSantelli charts the path to much, much higher yields, and warns that the Fed is running out of tricks pic.twitter.com/51DfL2R6HF
— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) October 2, 2023
US 10yr… 42yr
The US 10yr yield settled today 4.81%.
Psy 5.00% is clearly due.
Secondary… 7.00%, a level that Dimon of JPM has been touting.
We’ve not seen 10% yields since a brief spike in Oct’1987.
13% was last seen in July 1984… long ago… in the Reagan era.
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Nasdaq 4hr chart.
Just throwing this out there… 🧐 https://t.co/gM2uaYkVBA pic.twitter.com/3kvCnlWJ92
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 3, 2023
Along with yours truly, whilst FL lacks a time machine, he does merit consideration. I have to wonder if the market can bounce into early next week, with the VIX cooling back.
Anything >4300 would make for an acceptable re-short level, not least if you assume 4K as a basic target. 4370/4400 would be even more comfortable.
As ever… one day… one hour at a time.
Goodnight from London