Month: September 2023

Looking ahead

It was a red Thursday in equity land, the SPX settling -1.6% to 4330.

sp’weekly1b

Summary

SPX: we’re lower for the sixth week of eight, currently -120pts (2.7%). Today saw a break of the August low, and its highly supportive of the notion we’ll test m/t rising trend, which next week will be around 4240.

Momentum is increasingly negative, and will be a restraint on ALL bounces into October.

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Looking ahead

Friday will see PMI serv’, PMI manu’,

Earnings: none.
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Final note

Another reason for me to hate my country…

So lets get this clear…

A group of anonymous (hell, they could be guys) make accusations about Brand.
The mainstream media hacks launch a co-ordinated attack on him.
Youtube demonitises Brand’s channel.
UK Govt’ MP effectively ‘pressures’ Rumble and Tik tok to also demonitise Brand.

… all whilst Brand has had ZERO reports filed to the police, never mind any actual charges.
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Rumble duly responded…

It was pleasing to see Rumble push back, but they didn’t really show any passion in their reply. How about a simple ‘Stay the hell out of our private business relationships to our clients’ response?

Just consider this…

Person is criminally charged with something.
I don’t care WHAT the charge is.
We’re now at the stage where the UK Govt’ is immediately (BEFORE trial) trying to have private companies terminate business relationships with the charged individual.

On what gods damn basis is that morally okay?

Just imagine… person is found not guilty at trial, but in the meantime, their business has been effectively destroyed. What then huh?

Ohh, and let me be clear, so what if someone is even charged with a crime?
What business is it of the Govt’ to have ANY RIGHT to interfere with the person’s business?

As a few have noted, what we’re seeing is 100% corporate fascism, with the regime deeply in bed with corporations, from the payment processors, banks, web hosts, to grocery stores.

In terms of Rumble, and other websites that ‘resist’, the UK regime could just have the courts* issue an order to all the UK ISPs to block Rumble.

*the UK courts have long since issued orders to block various websites. The most notable in recent years is RT.com of Russia.

**I use a VPN (Express VPN), so I can privately access anything, regardless of what the UK regime/courts want to dictate.
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A sick nation, reflected in a sick political class

I live in a truly sick nation, a populace that is physically, psychologically, and to some degree… spiritually sick. Every day is worse here.

Seeing a concerted effort to destroy Brand’s personal and professional life is very disturbing. Even if this fades away, there is ZERO doubt the UK regime will increasingly turn its attention onto the mid and smaller tier people… including yours truly.

ALL those who spoke against the C19 narrative are on a Govt’ watchlist.
ALL those who actively speak against the proxy war against Russia are on a Govt’ watchlist.

In some ways, I see that as a feather in my cap, but still… it means that my future social credit score will be trash.

Frankly, my only hope is that the vast bulk of the populace die off due to the shots. That would be justice, especially for those discriminated against across 2020>22, those who lost their businesses, and whose employers, friends, and family turned against them.

I will NEVER back down on such issues.
It is the hill I would proudly die on.
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Crashy chatter

Last Friday saw the first significant downside, with Fed day seeing a rather ugly downside reversal. Today’s break under the August low has made the setup into next week that much more interesting.

There is background ‘crashy chatter’ from a number of those I quietly follow. I will detail more on this in the Friday AH/weekend post.

For now, if you start a count from Sept’15th (day’1), it offers Monday Oct’2nd (day’12) as a possible major drop. I’ve run the numbers, and the target range is 3630-3540, notably just above the Oct’2022 low.

Clearly, the latter would require not just a break of m/t trend, but a decisive break of the 200dma, and that won’t be easy. What would be the excuse? Bond yields spiking, something geo-political, or just a plain and simple technical break of multiple supports?

Regardless, you’re most welcome to deem all of that as ‘crazy talk’.

Today’s trades…

Having missed out on Wednesday’s drop, last night I decided… ‘at minimum, you’re going to pick up a crash block, because you’re going to go insane, if this market drops hard, and you have nothing on the short side’.

I followed through with that basic decision…
Block’2… 50x SPY Oct’3rd $400 PUTS.

Yes, that is one crazy ass strike… far out of the money.
Technically, it’d likely be profitable if we’re near sp’4400 on Oct’2nd… not least if the VIX is 30 or more.

So… I’ve that block, and it is a ‘hold until Oct’2nd’ position.
I will NOT sell it until that day.

Block’1 (SPY Oct’20th $430 PUTS), I picked up this afternoon from sp’4361. The bounce was weaker than I had hoped, but at least I got involved, and it was pleasing to see the SPX print 4329 into the close.

I will be highly inclined to trade in/out of at least part of block’1.

As things are… I’ll sleep in a far better mood than last night.

I’ll endeavour to keep things in perspective, into and across the Fall.

Goodnight from London