Equities cooled ahead of CPI, the SPX settling -0.7% to 4461. Meanwhile, WTIC settled +$1.55 (1.8%) to $88.84.
sp’weekly1b
WTIC daily
Summary
SPX: I’d especially note the blue bar histogram, as weekly momentum hasn’t been this negative since Oct’2022. Today saw a bear flag (spanning four days) provisionally confirmed. Soft target is the August low of 4335, with m/t rising trend around 4240 as of next Monday.
WTIC: oil printed a new multi-year high of $89.37. RSI 73s… overbought, but today’s gain was reminder no’794 that oil and the related energy stocks are arguably a no-short.
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Looking ahead
Wednesday will see the CPI… consensus:
Headline y/y: 3.6% vs 3.2% prior
core y/y: 4.4% vs 4.7% prior
other data: EIA Pet’
Earnings: CBRL, BUR, SMTC
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Final note
Indeed, there are some… not least the mainstream media hacks, who are against peace. Elon’s decision not to allow Starlink access to aid an attack against the Russian black sea fleet, has to be seen as a net positive.
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First, as noted yesterday, the past few days of price action argue AGAINST anything crashy. However, I still wanted to note that today was day’33 from the July 27th high, and day’6 from the high of 4541.
Daily momentum will be prone to turning negative on Wed’, and threatens broad downside across 3-4 days.
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VVIX:VIX settled at 6.02. Things turn ‘interesting’, if the recent low of 5.359 is taken out.
For now, lets just see how the market reacts to CPI.
Goodnight from London