It was a net bearish day in equity land, the SPX printing a new cycle low of 4238, if recovering to settle +0.02% to 4274. Meanwhile, WTIC settled +$3.29 (3.6%) to $93.68.
sp’weekly1b
WTIC daily
Summary
SPX: as things are, we’re net lower for the week by -45pts (1.0%). Momentum is increasingly negative, and a restraint on every single bounce. M/t trend from Oct’2022 has been broken.
WTIC: oil printed a new cycle high of $94.17, which was more impressive relative to the shaky equity market, and the stronger dollar. The bulk of the mainstream appear resigned to psy’ $100 within the near term.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see Weekly jobs, GDP Q2 (print’3)
Earnings: ACN, KMX, JBL, NKE, BB, MTN
Event: Powell is due 4pm. I’m not aware of the event, or whether it will be covered live.
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Final note
Pfizer $PFE ☣️
Moderna $MRNA ☣️
… as 'vaccine shedding' appears a real problem.The purebloods need to be careful about whom they allow within their bubble. https://t.co/JwesH6ynhY
— Philip Calrissian (@Trading_Sunset) September 27, 2023
L/t readers should remember that was indeed stated in the original Pfizer study, that was first leaked in spring/summer 2021.
Always good chatter from Jeff and Erica…
… as the sheeple haven’t learned their lesson.
*I’d cite yesterday’s AH post, detailing the UK’s 155K excess deaths, which extrapolates to around 1M (annualised) for the USA.
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Dr. Hotez calls this concerned mother a "useful idiot" to her face. This shameful behavior by a pediatrician in the public light should be carefully examined by anyone following the false narrative from the Bio-Pharmaceutical Complex. @DrLoupis @TexasLindsay_ @MdBreathe https://t.co/8d0iL83xSE
— Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH™ (@P_McCulloughMD) September 26, 2023
Hotez is perhaps even more disgusting than Fauci.
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Another day
Today was day’9, from the recent high of 4511.
Today saw a break of m/t rising trend, giving some extra confidence that 4607 was a key m/t high, and that the rally from Oct’2022 concluded July 27th.
More than anything, I’d note the 200dma at 4196. If Thursday or Friday sees a daily close under the 200dma, it would open a trap door, with a viable mini crash on Monday.
A downside target would depend on exactly where Friday settles.
If Friday was to settle at 4175, then target range would be 3648-3593.
I’d accept that is arguably Krazy-talk, but ongoing price action sure isn’t pretty. All the equity bears are lacking ahead of next Monday is a VIX >20, and the SPX <4190 or so.
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Yours truly holds one crash-position, 50x SPY Oct’3rd $400 PUTS, which I had dropped at the Monday open ($28 a contract), and picked back up this mid afternoon ($22 a contract). Its clearly extremely speculative. If SPX is printing 4K on Monday, the contracts would trade for perhaps $300.
If 3700, then $3000.
If this Thursday afternoon, or Friday afternoon appears set for a daily close under the 200dma, I would consider picking up a secondary block, if more conservative (more time… slightly higher strike).
As it is, I’m content to have at least something on the short-side.
If we spiral… fine. If not… I can live with that.
Goodnight from London