Looking ahead

It was a bearish Tuesday, the SPX printing a new cycle low of 4265, and settling -1.5% to 4273. Meanwhile, WTIC settled +71cents (0.8%) to $90.39.

sp’weekly1b

WTIC daily

Summary

SPX: we’re net lower for the seventh week of nine. Most important… we’re near m/t rising trend. If the market ends this week badly – <4175 to be decisive, Monday might be rather crashy.

WTIC: oil printed $88.19, but swung upward to settle in the $90s. This was more impressive, considering the weak equity market, and the marginally stronger dollar. Upside resistance $93s, and then giant psy’ $100.

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Looking ahead

Wednesday will see Durable goods orders, EIA Pet’

Earnings: PAYX, MU, FUL
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Final note

The latest death data…

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

Excess death rate: 3.9%
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Notably…

155K above normal.

If you extrapolate 6x to the USA…   you get 930K.

So yes, I’d argue the USA is seeing around an annual 1M shot related deaths.
Typically, you could assume the ‘significant injury’ rate is 10x that number.

… and yet the Biden regime, the UK’s Sunak, and many other western nations are all pushing round six of the shots.

Perhaps the most remarkable thing, is how few of the general populace are willing to accept the data, even when it comes from their own Govt’.

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Didn’t I say that last week? Now we’ve the UK’s mainstream media hacks pushing a narrative that Rumble should, and will be blocked.
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£1000 > $1200 per month… for a room.

*Yours truly pays £555 > $666 per month, for a one bedroom apartment.
As much as I despise my landlord at times, the non-profit ‘housing association’, does help to massively keep my running costs low.

The thought of having to share a house, was something I hated, and I stopped doing that in Nov’1994, when I was a mere 21yrs of age.

29 years later, and if anything, at least I managed to keep a roof over my head, and never have to share.
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Today was day’8 since the most recent lower high of 4511.

Let me be clear…

A daily close… whether Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday, under the daily 200dma would merit alarm bells, and threaten a mini crash next Monday.

My crash target range is 3630>3540, as largely based on an adjusted extrapolation of the 1987 event.

At present, I have ZERO short-side positions.
Today wasn’t great on the sidelines, but at least I’m not long anything.

If during Wed’, Thurs’, or Friday afternoon, we appear set for a DAILY close under the 200dma, I should probably pick up a crash position.

As such, it would likely be a ‘this works out crazy good… or its a zero’ kind of trade.

I’d be looking at SPY Oct’2nd, 3rd, or perhaps the 6th PUTS.
Strike… 415, the 400s, or maybe a 50/50 split.

*The Oct’2nd $400s are 16cents.
The Oct’6th $400s are 41 cents.

**in theory, even if the market falls under the 200dma, those prices might actually drop between now and the weekend, as almost no one is expecting a 300/500pt collapse next Monday.

Position size (in dollars) would likely be nothing more than $1000-2000, something I can afford to see go up in smoke, without getting overly annoyed.

For now… I’m content to watch, but it sure is ‘curious’ to see the market continuing to fall.

Whilst a mini crash would offer opportunity for a truly monstrous gain, if instead we bounce into end month/Q3… I’d be fine with that.

Lets see how tomorrow trades!

Goodnight from London