It was a bearish month for equities, SPX -291pts (4.9%) to 4288, with the Transports -756pts (4.8%) to 14968. WTIC gained +$7.16 (8.6%) to $90.79. Copper cooled by -8cents (2.2%) to $3.74. The USD strengthened by +256bps to DXY 106.14. The US 10yr yield climbed +50bps to 4.59%.
SPX, monthly
A second consecutive net monthly decline. Monthly momentum has rolled over, and might turn negative in October. I’d note the 10MA at 4217, which we settled above, but looks highly prone to being broken AND held under in October. A daily close under the daily 200MA, should offer psy’ 4K within October, and that wouldn’t merit as being called ‘crashy’. I’d note the lower bollinger offers a drop to the low 3600s.
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Trans, monthly
A second consecutive net monthly decline for the ‘old leader’. Momentum has rolled over, and will be highly prone to turning negative in early October. I’d note the April low of 13400, with the lower bollinger offering the 12400s.
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WTIC, monthly
A fourth consecutive net monthly gain, which was more impressive relative to the weak equity market and the stronger dollar. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and will be prone to turning positive in October. Having printed the $95s, giant psy’ $100 is clearly viable within October.
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Copper, monthly
A second monthly decline. Momentum has remained negative since April 2022. So much for the ‘China lead recovery’. Next support is around $3.30, and then psy’ $3.00.
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USD, monthly
The USD strengthened for a second consecutive month. Momentum ticked upward for a second month, and should have turned positive by late Oct’, or as of Nov’1st. The upper bollinger is offering the 111s, with secondary target of 114s. A grander target remain the 120s, last printed in Jan’2002.
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US 10yr yield, monthly
Yields climbed for a fifth consecutive month.
A new multi-decade high of 4.688% – the highest since Oct’2007.
Upper bollinger offers 4.75%, with psy’ 5.00% seemingly due within Oct’/Nov’.
*the mainstream chatter appears resigned to another rate hike at the Nov’1st FOMC, and that doesn’t assume any significant uptick in inflation.
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Miscell’ things…
Always good chatter from Heying and Weinstein, as there remain some crazy stories, such as those still blaming the Pangolins for C19.
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'We are still, to this day, unwilling to hold those to account who did this.'
– Superb as ever. Denniger @tickerguy
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*I for one will merely hope they take another shot. https://t.co/LkIFUJAKGp— Philip Calrissian (@Trading_Sunset) September 29, 2023
The latest from Denniger merits highlighting, and I’d go browse the comments.
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A depressing, if informative discussion from Dr Campbell and guest Roguski, on the issue of governments giving over ALL control to the WHO.
As I’ve noted for some months, this IS the very dark path the society/species is on. The complete transfer of authority to the WHO, who could then issue mask, vax, and ANY other type of health related mandate.
Just consider… the USA Govt’, and most others, are set to allow the WHO to decide what you eat, whether you can travel, and if you’re even allowed to purchase food/drinks.
Regardless of what my corrupt government decide, I ain’t playing along with whatever the WHO dictate. Responding to such diktats, I have no boundaries as to how I’d respond to such psychopaths, and all those who support them, whether actively, or via simple apathy.
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Another week, and the Celente is even more mad than last week.
I lasted about 75% into this latest tirade.
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Dear Subscriber
Two days to rest, although I’ve the end month individual stock settlements to cover. Not sure how many of those I will highlight.
In any case… I’m burnt out, and its almost kinda scary.
… and I’m still here… in London. What the hell am I doing?
On a positive note, my trading account was net higher for the week, and month. I’ve at least more capital to trade with, as the main market should be increasingly weak into the winter.
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
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The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail ten of the world equity markets, which should help put the US market into context.